What Went Down In The June 7 Primaries

The country’s largest state by population also has the largest number of races to watch tonight: 20! Remember, though, that California uses a top-two primary, which means all candidates run on the same ballot, regardless of party, and the top-two vote getters advance to the general election. Here are the three statewide races we’re monitoring:

• Governor: What a difference a year makes. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom successfully fended off an attempted recall in 2021 and now faces only token GOP opposition in his reelection campaign. Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle, the party’s endorsed candidate, is probably most likely to advance to the November election, but he’d be a huge underdog against Newsom.
• Senate: Appointed Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla is also in good shape to advance in both Senate primaries — that’s right, he’s on the ballot twice. There’s a special election for the final months of his current term, and then a regularly scheduled election for the seat’s next six-year term, which begins January 2023.
• Attorney General: This is the one race where a candidate who isn’t a Democrat might have a chance of winning statewide office, which hasn’t happened since 2006. Appointed Democratic Attorney General Rob Bonta is favored, but his general election path might be tougher if independent Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert also advances. However, the little polling we have suggests one of the two Republicans running — attorneys Nathan Hochman and Eric Early — will finish second.

There are also 16 House primaries we’re watching in the Golden State, so here’s a table breaking down all these races:

• 3rd District: The question in this GOP-leaning seat is which Republican will advance along with Navy veteran and physician Kermit Jones, the leading Democrat. The two Republicans are Assemblyman Kevin Kiley and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones. Kiley looks to have the upper hand with an endorsement from Trump and a fundraising edge.

• 5th District: GOP Rep. Tom McClintock is seeking reelection in the safely Republican 5th District, but it only contains about 40 percent of his current seat, which might open the door for Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig to unseat McClintock.

• 8th District: Democratic Rep. John Garamendi should have little trouble advancing in this heavily Democratic seat, but it’s far bluer than the light blue district he’s represented over the past decade, so his moderate record could backfire and help his Democratic opponents eat into his support.

• 9th District: Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is seeking reelection in this Democratic-leaning seat, and odds are he will advance along with Republican Tom Patti, a San Joaquin County supervisor, in what could be a highly competitive district in the fall.

• 13th District: This open seat may have the most primary drama of any competitive House seat, as each party has two notable candidates. Democrats have a progressive-moderate split, with financial advisor Phil Arballo attracting support from labor while Assemblyman Adam Gray has a reputation as one of the state legislature’s leading moderate Democrats. Meanwhile, Republicans are looking at agribusinessman John Duarte and businessman David Giglio, with Duarte attracting support from national Republicans.

• 15th District: This deep-blue Bay Area seat is a race to succeed Democratic Rep. Jackie Speier, and with three notable Democrats in the mix, it’s highly possible that two will advance to the general election. Assemblyman Kevin Mullin has somewhat outraised San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa and Burlingame Councilmember Emily Beach, but Beach, an Army veteran, has received outside support from veteran-focused groups,

• 22nd District: Republican Rep. David Valadao is seeking reelection in this Democratic-leaning seat after voting to impeach Trump in January 2021. But unlike most of the other nine House Republicans in the same situation, Valadao never attracted a serious primary challenge, and he’s favored to advance today, although it’s possible former Fresno City Councilman Chris Mathys might win a fair number of dissatisfied Republican votes. Assemblyman Rudy Salas is the only Democrat running, so a Valadao-Salas matchup in November seems probable.

• 27th District: The big question in this Democratic-leaning seat is whether Republican Rep. Mike Garcia gets a rematch with former Assemblywoman Christy Smith, whom Garcia beat in a May 2020 special election and the November 2020 election (he won by just 333 votes in the latter). But Smith might not be the Democrat to advance to the general, as fellow Democrat and Navy veteran Quaye Quartey has run even with Smith in fundraising and actually entered the last weeks of the race with three times as much cash on hand.

• 34th District: The primary in this dark blue seat will likely produce an all-Democratic rematch between Rep. Jimmy Gomez and immigration attorney David Kim. Gomez beat Kim by 6 points in the 2020 general election.

• 37th District: State Sen. Sydney Kamlager is the likely front-runner to succeed Democratic Rep. Karen Bass in this deep blue, Los Angeles-based seat. She has endorsements from Bass and EMILY’s List, and has gotten close to $1 million in outside spending support, mostly from crypto-aligned groups.

• 40th District: Republican Rep. Young Kim is running for reelection in this GOP-leaning seat, but she only represents about 1 in 5 of the new district’s constituents. Physician Asif Mahmood, the lone Democrat running, has run ads indirectly encouraging Republicans to back Mission Viejo City Councilman Greg Raths, a Republican running to Kim’s right who would likely be a weaker general election candidate.

• 41st District: Two Democrats are jockeying to advance to the general election along with 15-term Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in this red-leaning seat. Former federal prosecutor Will Rollins has raised just over $1 million to engineer Shrina Kurani’s $491,000, so Rollins may have the edge.

• 42nd District: This dark blue seat features a battle of unrelated Garcias, as Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia and Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia seem likely to advance to the general election. The mayor has a fundraising advantage, as he’s raised $1.1 million to the assemblywoman’s $420,000, and he’s also received far more outside spending support.

• 45th District: This competitive but slightly blue-leaning seat is about 40 percent Asian, and the candidate field reflects this: Korean American Republican Rep. Michelle Steel will likely advance to the November election along with community college trustee Jay Chen, a Tawainese American and the lone Democrat in the race.

• 47th District: Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is one of the top fundraisers in the House, but she may need every penny to win reelection in this blue-leaning seat given the tough environment for Democrats. Her likely November opponent is Republican Scott Baugh, a former chair of the Orange County GOP.

• 49th District: Democratic Rep. Mike Levin will face one of three Republicans fighting for the other general election slot. Former San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott, who lost to Levin by 6 points in 2020, is the leading GOP fundraiser thanks to his self-funding, but Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez has raised a similar amount from individual contributions and has more outside spending support. Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett is also in the race.

Lastly, there’s also a special election in the 22nd District, which was prompted by Republican Rep. Devin Nunes’s resignation in January after redistricting obliterated his district. (The new 22nd district barely contains anything from this district.) No candidate won a majority in the initial election on April 5, but Republican Connie Conway, a former assemblywoman, looks likely to defeat Democrat Lourin Hubbard, a water resource manager, to serve out the last months of this district’s existence.