FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

Look Outside California For Big Lie Races Tonight

While most of the races are in California tonight, the races that involve Big Lie-supporting candidates, or those who back Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was fraudulent, are largely taking place in other states. Even outside of the Golden State, there are fewer Big Lie races this evening.

Mississippi only has one race we’re watching tonight, but it might have the highest Big Lie stakes tonight as scandal-plagued Big Lie proponent Republican Rep. Steven Palazzo could be in trouble. Palazzo voted not to certify some election results, and supported a lawsuit out of Texas that aimed to overturn results. He’s also been under investigation by the Office of Congressional Ethics, so simply being the incumbent might not be enough to win. Challenging him are six other Republicans, including others who have questioned the 2020 election results. However, his closest competitors have been less outspoken about the Big Lie. State Sen. Brice Wiggins has been fairly quiet on the Big Lie front, but did tweet praise of Mississippi Sen. ​​Roger Wicker for voting to certify the election results. Meanwhile, retired banker Clay Wagner and Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell don’t have a stated position on the 2020 election. So suffice to say, if Palazzo is not the GOP candidate, it will likely be someone who hasn’t championed the Big Lie the way he has.

Another race to watch is the Republican primary for governor in New Mexico. Each of the five candidates in that race has, at the very least, raised some questions about the 2020 election. The front-runner, former local weatherman Mark Ronchetti, dodged a debate question about election fraud, but does have a section of his campaign website devoted to “election integrity,” which is often a dog-whistle of sorts to the Big Lie crowd.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, there’s a hot race for Republican nominee in the state’s 3rd Congressional District, where the GOP is hoping to unseat the state’s lone Democrat, Cindy Axne. One of those candidates is Gary Leffler, a farmer who rides his American flag-painted tractor at campaign events, and has been outspoken about his belief that the election was stolen. In 2020, he attended the “Stop the Steal” rally preceding the attack on the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6. He even posed for photos from the steps of the Capitol, though he said he did not go inside. However, he’s a fringe candidate who is unlikely to win.

It’s perhaps not surprising to find that in traditionally blue California, Republicans were less likely to be vocal about Trump’s claim that the 2020 election was stolen — we found most candidates didn’t have a stated position on it one way or the other. But a handful bucked the trend. Take California’s 22nd Congressional District, where Republican Rep. David Valadao is being primaried by two contenders, one of whom has endorsed the Big Lie. Rancher Chris Mathys has said Trump would have won if votes had been “properly counted.” It looks likely though that Valadao will easily cruise to the November general election. Below is a table of all the Big Lie candidates I’ll be tracking tonight:

How Big Lie supporters are doing tonight

Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in primaries in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, as of 11:28 a.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Big Lie Position % REPORTING VOTE SHARE STATUS
James P. Bradley CA Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0% 0.0%
Sarah Sun Liew CA Sen. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Chuck Smith CA Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Cordie Williams CA Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Daniel R. Mercuri CA Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Cristian Raul Morales CA Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Robert C. Newman II CA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Leo S. Zacky CA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Rachel Hamm CA SoS ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
James “JW” Paine CA SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Raul Rodriguez Jr. CA SoS ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Eric Early CA AG 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Doug LaMalfa* CA-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Max Semenenko CA-07 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Jim Shoemaker CA-09 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
John Dennis CA-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Diego Javier Martinez CA-13 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Ritesh Tandon CA-17 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Dalila Epperson CA-19 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Kevin McCarthy* CA-20 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Chris Mathys CA-22 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Jay Obernolte* CA-23 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Fadde Mikhail CA-26 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Paul Nathan Taylor CA-26 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Mike Garcia* CA-27 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
David Rudnick CA-27 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Patrick Lee Gipson CA-30 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Ronda Kennedy CA-30 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Johnny J. Nalbandian CA-30 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Mike Cargile CA-35 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Joe E. Collins III CA-36 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Derrick R. Gates CA-36 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Eric J. Ching CA-38 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Tony Moreno CA-39 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Aja Smith CA-39 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Bill Spinney CA-39 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Greg Raths CA-40 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Nick Taurus CA-40 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Ken Calvert* CA-41 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
John Briscoe CA-42 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Omar Navarro CA-43 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Long K. Pham CA-45 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Darrell Issa* CA-48 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Christopher Rodriguez CA-49 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
David Chiddick CA-50 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Tyler Geffeney CA-52 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Jim Carlin IA Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Gary Leffler IA-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Al “Doc” Olszewski MT-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Mary Todd MT-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Ryan K. Zinke MT-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Matt Rosendale* MT-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Claire Gustafson NJ-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Ian A. Smith NJ-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Mike Crispi NJ-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Steve Gray NJ-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Philip Rizzo NJ-07 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Billy Prempeh NJ-09 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Alexander R. Halter NJ-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Darius Mayfield NJ-12 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Jay C. Block NM Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Rebecca L. Dow NM Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Gregory Joseph Zanetti NM Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Ethel R. Maharg NM Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Mark V. Ronchetti NM Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Michelle Garcia Holmes NM-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Yvette Herrell* NM-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Bruce Whalen SD Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Mark Mowry SD Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Steven Haugaard SD Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Taffy Howard SD-AL ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0

*Incumbent.

Candidates marked as having “denied legitimacy” of the 2020 election either explicitly said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was illegitimate or, if an elected official, took legal measures to try and overturn the election. Candidates marked as “raised doubts” have questioned the fairness of the 2020 election or made references to “election integrity” but have not explicitly said the election or Trump’s loss was illegitimate.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News


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