Tonight marks our largest primary night this season as seven states — count ‘em, seven — California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota headed to the ballot box today. It also kicks off a weekly affair: We’ll be back here every week in June live-blogging the primaries.
With seven states voting tonight, there’s a lot to keep an eye on, but as Geoffrey wrote in his preview on Monday, California is the big state to watch tonight, even though the polls won’t close until 11 p.m. Eastern. In total, there are 20 primaries to watch in California, and the overwhelming majority of them (16) are in the House, which will be a recurring theme this evening. Depending on how tonight goes, these races could have big ramifications for how Democrats and Republicans fare in the general election, too, as a number of seats in California were flipped in 2018 by Democrats. But now if the national environment heavily favors Republicans, it’s possible that the GOP will claw back some of these seats.
It’s a similar story in New Mexico and New Jersey, although Democrats have done more in New Jersey to shore up vulnerable Democrats. The Democrat tonight most at risk of losing the general in November might be Rep. Cindy Axne of Iowa, who is running for reelection in a red-leaning state, in a R+2 seat, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean. That’s why it’ll be interesting to see who wins the Republican primary tonight — likely either state Sen. Zach Nunn or financial planner Nicole Hasso — as that could end up mattering a lot to Axne’s reelection chances come November.
Meanwhile, in Mississippi, Montana and South Dakota, the Republican primaries are especially worth keeping an eye on. In both Montana and South Dakota, it’s a question of how challengers running to the right of either the incumbent or favored candidate will fare. In Mississippi, there’s some of that as well, but it’s more so a story of corruption and whether six-term Republican Rep. Steven Palazzo’s alleged misuse of campaign funds — the Office of Congressional Ethics is currently investigating him — will be enough to sink him. To read more about what’s at stake in Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, check out Geoffrey’s primary preview from earlier today and, of course, stay tuned to this live blog as we’ll be covering what happens in real time.
As always, thanks for following along, and if you have any questions, ping us @538politics and I’ll try to get your question answered on the live blog!