What Went Down In The June 7 Primaries

There are still a lot of uncalled races tonight — especially in California — but your indefatigable live blog crew is going to call it a night, as we actually have a pretty good sense of where most of these races are headed. Tonight didn’t carry too many big surprises either (although things in the Mississippi 3rd Congressional District were certainly closer than we originally anticipated). However, it did seem like there was a healthy protest vote out there tonight, as Republican incumbents in several districts, like New Jersey’s 4th, South Dakota at-large, California’s 22nd, Mississippi’s 3rd and Mississippi’s 4th, all turned in weak showings, even though none of them have lost reelection (yet).

But for the most part, a lot of our answers about who will ultimately prevail in these races is going to have to wait until November. It does look, though, that in some of the primaries — from former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. winning in New Jersey’s 7th District to state Sen. Zach Nunn winning in Iowa’s 3rd to Rep. Young Kim in California’s 40th — Republicans backed more mainstream candidates whenever possible. Democrats, for their part, have also backed more moderate candidates in races that look to be competitive come November. But, of course, it might be downballot races like the recall of San Francisco’s progressive district attorney, Chesa Boudin, and the neck-and-neck Los Angeles mayoral race between Rep. Karen Bass and billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso that end up overshadowing things tonight.

That said, the seven primaries still too close to call at this point are outlined below:

• The GOP primary for Montana’s 1st District is incredibly close, as former Secretary of the Interior (and former congressman) Ryan Zinke is in a dead heat with former state legislator Al “Doc” Olszewski. Both candidates have about 40 percent with about half the expected vote reporting. The winner will likely be favored over Democratic attorney Monica Tranel in November.
• Two Republican incumbents are up against the wall in two deep-red districts in Mississippi. In the 3rd District, Rep. Michael Guest trails Navy veteran Michael Cassidy, 48 percent to 47 percent, which would precipitate a June 28 runoff if both candidates remain under 50 percent. And in the 4th District, Rep. Steve Palazzo looks in really rough shape despite finishing first, as he has garnered only 32 percent to set up a runoff, likely against Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell, who’s at 25 percent.
• In the Republican primary for New Jersey’s 5th District, 2020 GOP nominee and investment banker Frank Pallotta has a narrow lead over Marine Corps veteran Nick De Gregorio, 50 percent to 46 percent. They’re vying to take on Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer, who spent some money of his own to boost Pallotta, as he sees the banker as a weaker general-election opponent. The seat was made more Democratic during redistricting.

• The Republican primary for New Jersey’s 11th District is still a close race between former assistant Passaic County Prosecutor Paul DeGroot, at 40 percent, and Morris County Commissioner Tayfun Selen, at 35 percent. Whoever wins will face a formidable foe in Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in this seat with a D+11 partisan lean.
• In California’s 9th District, Democratic Rep. Josh Harder leads with 43 percent of the vote despite this district being mostly new to him; Republicans Tom Patti and Jim Shoemaker follow with 26 percent and 10 percent of the vote, respectively. Given the district’s D+8 partisan lean, Harder should start out as the general-election favorite, but this race could get competitive in a red-wave scenario.
• In California’s 22nd District, Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas seems likely to advance to November, with 52 percent of the primary vote so far. By contrast, Republican incumbent David Valadao is all the way back at 25 percent. Right now, that’s enough to advance, but it’s a clear indicator of Republican voters’ discontent with Valadao, one of only 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. It’s even still somewhat conceivable that Trumpier Republican Chris Mathys (currently at 17 percent) could overtake Valadao for the second general election slot.
• In California’s 49th District, several Republicans are in the hunt to take on Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, who easily earned himself a spot in the general election. With about 57 percent of the vote counted, Levin had 55 percent, while his 2020 opponent, Republican Brian Maryott, had 17 percent. Orange Counter Supervisor Lisa Bartlett had 10 percent, and Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez had 9 percent. But there’s still a fair bit of Orange County left to county, which could help Bartlett squeeze past Maryott. Republicans hope to give Levin a scare this year, even though his district is pretty blue: Biden would have carried it, 54-43 percent.

The Associated Press has called the Republican nomination in New Jersey’s 3rd District for Bob Healey, who defeats Ian Smith 53 percent to 38 percent. Healey has been a strong fundraiser and should be a better GOP candidate in November than Smith, a gym owner who became a minor right-wing celebrity for his resistance of COVID-19 restrictions. However, Democratic Rep. Andy Kim will be difficult to dislodge regardless, given that his seat was shored up in redistricting.

AP projects that Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla and Republican Mark Meuser will advance to the November special election for the U.S. Senate, which will complete the final months of Vice President Kamala Harris’s term. (Fun fact: Meuser and Padilla also faced off in the last midterm elections, for California Secretary of State.) As we all know, California is a blue state and we don’t expect that to change this fall, but given the divisive state of politics and the fact that this will likely be a hard midterm year for Democrats, it’s likely that the party won’t take any chances that Padilla’s future in the Senate could hit a snag.