FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

The Associated Press has called the Republican nomination in New Jersey’s 3rd District for Bob Healey, who defeats Ian Smith 53 percent to 38 percent. Healey has been a strong fundraiser and should be a better GOP candidate in November than Smith, a gym owner who became a minor right-wing celebrity for his resistance of COVID-19 restrictions. However, Democratic Rep. Andy Kim will be difficult to dislodge regardless, given that his seat was shored up in redistricting.

Alex Samuels

AP projects that Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla and Republican Mark Meuser will advance to the November special election for the U.S. Senate, which will complete the final months of Vice President Kamala Harris’s term. (Fun fact: Meuser and Padilla also faced off in the last midterm elections, for California Secretary of State.) As we all know, California is a blue state and we don’t expect that to change this fall, but given the divisive state of politics and the fact that this will likely be a hard midterm year for Democrats, it’s likely that the party won’t take any chances that Padilla’s future in the Senate could hit a snag.

Jacob Rubashkin

Checking in on California’s 47th, where just under 60 percent of votes have been counted. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is holding steady at 58 percent. Her top opponent, Republican Scott Baugh, is at 27 percent. They look set to face each other in a head-to-head matchup this fall.


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