FiveThirtyEight
Alex Samuels

AP projects that Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla and Republican Mark Meuser will advance to the November special election for the U.S. Senate, which will complete the final months of Vice President Kamala Harris’s term. (Fun fact: Meuser and Padilla also faced off in the last midterm elections, for California Secretary of State.) As we all know, California is a blue state and we don’t expect that to change this fall, but given the divisive state of politics and the fact that this will likely be a hard midterm year for Democrats, it’s likely that the party won’t take any chances that Padilla’s future in the Senate could hit a snag.

Jacob Rubashkin

Checking in on California’s 47th, where just under 60 percent of votes have been counted. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is holding steady at 58 percent. Her top opponent, Republican Scott Baugh, is at 27 percent. They look set to face each other in a head-to-head matchup this fall.

Geoffrey Skelley

About half the expected vote is in from California’s 45th District, and Democrat Jay Chen, a community college trustee, holds a slight edge over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, 46 percent to 44 percent. That pretty much guarantees they will be the two candidates to advance to November.


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