What Went Down In The June 7 Primaries

The last California race on my radar is the open-seat race in California’s 37th District to succeed Rep. Karen Bass, who announced in September that she would instead run in Los Angeles’s mayoral race. The race to replace her in the historically Black-represented L.A. seat is somewhat competitive, but all signs ahead of tonight suggest that state Sen. Sydney Kamlager — who already represents most of the 37th District in the state Senate — is a favorite to advance to the November general election. Not only is she the top fundraiser in the race, but Kamlager also has dozens of endorsements from federal, state and local officials, including Bass and Newsom. Still, the field here is quite crowded, so it’s unclear who her most formidable opponent is. Other notable names in the race include L.A. Councilwoman Jan Perry and Culver City Mayor Daniel Lee.

At the top of the ticket in California, there is little doubt that Gov. Gavin Newsom will advance to the general election (and eventually win reelection). The question tonight is: Who will advance alongside him? It is expected to either be Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle or politically unaffiliated author Michael Shellenberger. In the most recent polling, Dahle led Shellenberger, 10 percent to 5 percemt. It probably doesn’t matter enormously, but as a general rule, it’s good to have your party represented at the top of the ticket, even if you are going to lose, to help drive turnout statewide, which can in turn help House candidates. If Shellenberger advances, the GOP will not be represented at the top of the ticket in California this fall.

Meanwhile, in California’s dark blue 15th District, there’s an increasingly competitive race between a handful of candidates vying to succeed retiring Rep. Jackie Speier. The race is still anybody’s to lose at this point, but polling and fundraising suggest that the race is mainly dominated by three Democratic contenders: Assemblyman Kevin Mullin, San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa and Burlingame Councilmember Emily Beach.

Mullin might be the candidate to watch out for tonight. He already represents most of the San Mateo-area seat and has Speier’s backing, along with the support of a number of other establishment Democrats. Plus, an April poll gave Mullin a 14-percentage point edge over Canepa, his closest opponent (31 percent to 17 percent). The race will still be an interesting test case in just how far left the district has gone. Despite Mullin’s slight fundraising edge, Canepa, who represents the far-left flank of the party, might have a bigger appeal to progressive voters in the district. Beach, meanwhile, has a path forward, too, as the only woman running. On top of that, she has also received $169,000 from veteran-focused groups, so it’s hard to say which two candidates will make the November general election.