FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Micah, my big takeaway is that Ford is coming across as a very sympathetic and likable figure — both from her emotional testimony and her occasional small jokes. That said, I think Mitchell has also come across as likable and noncombative — Republicans have been smart so far to defer their time to her.

Micah Cohen

Hey gang, now that we’ve reached the first break, does anyone have takeaways from the hearing so far?

Nate Silver

There comes a time in every liveblog when I cite prediction markets, and now is that time. The chance of Kavanuagh failing to be confirmed is up quite a bit since the hearing began today, to 60 percent from about 50 percent initially.


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