FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

Hey gang, now that we’ve reached the first break, does anyone have takeaways from the hearing so far?

Nate Silver

There comes a time in every liveblog when I cite prediction markets, and now is that time. The chance of Kavanuagh failing to be confirmed is up quite a bit since the hearing began today, to 60 percent from about 50 percent initially.

Julia Azari

I’m still contemplating the strange format, but it seems fitting under the circumstances and given the cultural moment we’re in. Much of what the Democratic Senators have said has been about sexual assault broadly, and what survivors have been through. But this is obviously also about Kavanaugh, who could still end up at the Supreme Court. Lots of things are happening at once.


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