FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1239345320343023617
Nate Silver

Even with the debate underway, Google searches for Biden and Sanders are far dwarfed by searches for “coronavirus.”

Nathaniel Rakich

Probably unsurprisingly, Sanders is the first to bring up the effect of coronavirus-related closures on workers.

Geoffrey Skelley

Right, Perry. Sanders is basically saying, aren’t health care emergencies a fact of life for many Americans, whether the country is dealing with a pandemic or not?

Nate Silver

I think it’s interesting though, Amelia, how Biden is trying to sort of frame this as Sanders talking in hypotheticals while he’s dealing with the crisis we have today heads-on.

Perry Bacon Jr.

So the debate is over whether to offer free (taxpayer-funded) coronavirus coverage (Biden’s position) versus basically offering free coverage for everything, all the time (Sanders’s stance.)

Micah Cohen

Maybe I was naive, but I’ve been surprised by Sanders’s willingness to take shots at Biden — he just slipped in a shot about Biden’s donors.

Laura Bronner

Right, Kaleigh, I’m not sure the fact that Italy’s health care system is overwhelmed under the current burden is useful evidence either way about the quality of that system relative to the one here.

Nathaniel Rakich

Sanders says there are “enormous loopholes” in Congress’s recent coronavirus legislation, although interestingly he says he understands that Nancy Pelosi did her best given that she had to compromise with Republicans. I feel like Sanders doesn’t usually respect compromise like that?

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

It is so fascinating to watch the candidates talk about a real, live health care crisis rather than arguing over hypothetical costs and plans. They are drawing in their talking points and campaign platforms, of course, but it is a very unusual glimpse into how they think about an actual unfolding crisis.

Kaleigh Rogers

Italy is a great example of how any health care system, no matter how well-funded or functioning, can be overwhelmed by an outbreak like this without proper leadership and action.

Galen Druke

Biden is talking about how our response to the new coronavirus has been piecemeal and very much a product of federalism. He suggests a more nationalized response, like we’ve seen in other countries.

Nathaniel Rakich

Only 12 minutes in, but the headline so far is that both candidates are trying to steer the coronavirus discussion back to their comfort zones: for Biden, that’s his experience in the Obama administration; for Sanders, it’s his support for a single-payer health system.

Nathaniel Rakich

Biden sidesteps a question of whether he would mandate a national lockdown and takes the opportunity to undermine Sanders’s argument that a single-payer system would have prepared the U.S. better for the coronavirus, pointing to Italy and its single-payer system.

Nate Silver

The point about Italy is a pretty decent one! It has a pretty highly rated health care system, especially in the north of the country, where the outbreak is worse.

Geoffrey Skelley

Biden takes a shot at Medicare for All by mentioning that Italy uses a single-payer health care system, which hasn’t prevented problems there.

Poll Bot

https://twitter.com/538PollBot/status/1239343039144964103
Kaleigh Rogers

Biden appears to have stumbled in remembering the name of Ebola, which had a mass outbreak in West Africa while he was vice president.

Nathaniel Rakich

I don’t know if it’s the lack of energy from a live audience, the small number of candidates on stage or the sober topic, but this debate seems more subdued than past ones.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Sanders also says wages should be protected — which is a key question for many workers as layoffs begin and states like Illinois order restaurants and bars to close for the next two weeks.

Nathaniel Rakich

It’s still early, Nate. I don’t think that would have been appropriate for the coronavirus portion of the evening, but once we get to other topics (I wonder how long that will take, though?) I don’t know if that will be true.

Nate Silver

Unlike in past CNN debates, these questions don’t seem engineered to spark conflict between the candidates.

Nathaniel Rakich

Then Sanders says that people who get the new coronavirus should not have to worry about paying for their medical care (which of course plays into his support for government-run health care).

Nathaniel Rakich

In his first answer, Sanders goes straight to attacking Trump for spreading misinformation on the coronavirus.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Just a week ago, both Biden and Sanders were on the campaign trail in Michigan and other states. Now they’ve told their staff to work from home and have stopped holding big events and door-to-door canvasses. Just another reminder of how much our reality has shifted in such a short time.

Kaleigh Rogers

First question is, of course, about the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. This gives both candidates a chance to be presidential and give a glimpse at how they might handle a crisis

Geoffrey Skelley

In case you missed it, the CDC recommended that any event attended by more than 50 people be postponed or canceled for the next eight weeks.

Poll Bot

More than 7 in 10 Democrats think it’s a good idea that tonight’s debate is being held without an audience, per a recent YouGov poll.

Nathaniel Rakich

Some adaptations have been made to this debate due to coronavirus: It was moved from Phoenix to D.C. to reduce travel. There is no studio audience. And the lecterns are six feet apart.

Nate Silver

I’m not exactly sure what to expect tonight, but I think Sanders is in a fairly tight box. If he’s too aggressive, he might get accused of taking advantage of a crisis and/or hurting Biden’s chances in a general election. If he’s too passive, though, it could just seem like a coronation of Biden.

Poll Bot

Bleep bloop, Poll Bot here… and for the last time at least for a while, I’m going to provide you with relevant polling information throughout the debate.

Sarah Frostenson

Welcome To The Last Primary Debate?

It’s been a long primary season, but tonight’s debate, hosted by CNN in Washington, D.C., might very well be its last. Just former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders will take the stage, and thanks to the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. — with more than 3,000 reported cases in 49 states — there will be no live audience.

The mood is sure to be somber, too, as 65 Americans have already died from the virus and many more have started to quarantine themselves to slow further outbreak of the disease. But Tuesday’s primaries in Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Illinois also look like something of a foregone conclusion at this point. In our primary forecast, Biden has a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the most pledged delegates overall, and in each of the four states voting on Tuesday, he has at last a 97 percent of winning the primary. As editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote last week, at this point, Sanders needs something extraordinary to happen to win the nomination.

Although as you can see from our polling with Ipsos, which uses Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to interview the same group of voters twice, nearly 40 percent of respondents going into tonight’s debate are still considering supporting Sanders, although more are still thinking of backing Biden. (Check back tomorrow afternoon when we update with post-debate numbers.)


As always, thanks again for joining us. We’ll be watching the debate together — you, me and our team of political analysts (including Nate). So stay tuned as we update the blog with analysis, charts, thoughts, questions, ideas, idle fancies and more. We’ll also answer all your 2020-related questions. So if you have thoughts, inquiries, requests or anything else, send ’em to us on Twitter.


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