What Went Down At The First Biden vs. Sanders Debate

Much of tonight’s debate, understandably, centered on the coronavirus as more than 3,000 people have reported having the virus in the U.S. and 65 have already died.

Perhaps unsurprisingly then, not a lot of new ground was covered — although Biden did make news by saying he would pick a woman to be his running mate. Rather, much of tonight focused on the two men on stage reiterating their big talking points and rehashing what bills they had — or hadn’t — voted for in the Senate.

Multiple times throughout the evening, Sanders returned to the question of “where the power is in America,” pushing Biden to answer how his administration would challenge the status quo. It seemed, in many ways, like a final adieu from Sanders, although this primary is far from over. Four more states vote on Tuesday, but it’s hard to see tonight’s debate altering the trajectory of the race, and tomorrow’s headlines will likely have more to do with the ongoing coronavirus epidemic than the primary.

Tomorrow we will have our post-debate polling with Ipsos on who likely Democratic primary voters thought did well, but in the meantime, here’s a snapshot of our live blog crew’s headlines. Keep scrolling for their final takeaways and more:

• Kaleigh: Amid Chaos, An Unchaotic Debate At Last
• Perry A Serious, Spirited, Substantive Debate — Finally!
• Amelia: Sanders Makes His Final Pitch For A Progressive Agenda
• Nathaniel: Biden Commits To Picking A Female Running Mate As Candidates Project Leadership On Coronavirus
• Meena: Amid Coronavirus Pandemic, Sanders Attempts To Push Biden Further Left
• Micah: Biden And Sanders Debate … Never Mind, Let’s Go Back To Coronavirus
• Geoffrey: The Coronavirus Overshadows The Democratic Debate

In addition to what others have said, I remain somewhat surprised that the coronavirus situation didn’t usurp more of the debate’s focus — while there was a long discussion at the beginning and it came up again in the wrap-up at the end, the majority of the debate had the two candidates arguing about many of the issues that have dominated the rest of the campaign.

Sometimes debates can dramatically move opinions during a primary election. This was not one of those debates, and it might be the last one — we’ll see. It doesn’t help Sanders that his criticisms of Biden will have to break through during a period when media coverage will be framed almost entirely around the coronavirus. That part of the debate was less divisive, so if it’s covered, it shouldn’t do much to change minds. I thought Biden had a solid debate, too, and he avoided making the sort of mistake(s) that could’ve conceivably caused some voters to question their support for him.

It’s pretty amazing that the first two-person debate of the 2020 primary — winnowed from a field of 20-plus — felt in so many ways inconsequential. And I think it largely will be — Biden’s grip on the race just seems too tight.

But my one note of caution would be that the fact that this was the first two-person debate maybe introduces some extra potential power? IDK … maybe not. It’s sooooo hard to imagine this debate altering the trajectory of the race. At the same time, a lot of things have happened in politics — including in this race — that were hard to imagine.

It’s kind of sad that this debate took place in the midst of a global crisis that is naturally drawing everyone’s attention away, because it was a good one. Without the audience and the cacophony of seven+ candidates on stage, we finally got a chance to have Biden and Sanders challenge each other and actually respond. Still, while coronavirus naturally featured heavily in the top of the debate, there was something comforting about being reminded that the world is continuing to spin, and we continue to have an election that is about more than the current crisis at hand.

This was a pretty fragmented debate, each fragment of which had a different takeaway, in my opinion. On the coronavirus, both Biden and Sanders seemed very serious and prepared and projected the leadership people are probably looking for in this time of crisis. On most other policy issues, though, they spent a lot of time bickering — a lot more than I thought they would, given that the primary is basically not competitive anymore. I think Sanders won most of those exchanges and did a good job exposing that Biden has not been consistent in his positions over the years, but I think Cuba and China was one topic where Biden bested Sanders. Finally, though, I think the most newsworthy parts of the debate were when Biden made, well, actual news — he committed to ending most deportations and picking a female running mate. Overall, the debate did not feature the kind of colossal Biden gaffe that was needed to dislodge him as a national front-runner.

Despite being shorter than some of the other debates, it was a long night for Biden and Sanders, who spoke more than twice as much as they did at any other debate, perhaps a consequence of being the only two candidates on tonight’s stage.

As others have said, it would have taken a lot to shift the trajectory of the race. I don’t think that happened. But it was striking to hear the closing messages from the candidates about the coronavirus. Sanders said that the coronavirus crisis is a call to dramatically shift the system, a “time to ask how we got to where we are” and make broader changes. Biden instead went personal — saying he can’t imagine how fearful people must be. It’s a pretty good encapsulation of the differences between the two candidates. And obviously, one of those styles/strategies seems to have won over Democratic voters this year.

This was by far the best debate because it involved just two candidates and they disagree on a lot. They represent the two dominant ways of thinking within in the Democratic Party. I wish this kind of debate had happened when the results of the primary weren’t basically already decided and many people will feel uncomfortable heading out to vote.

I don’t know that Sanders had much of a shot in the primary anyway, barring the coronavirus having extremely unpredictable effects. And tonight, which was maybe Sanders’s last/best opportunity for a miracle comeback, I think instead Biden had one of his stronger debates of the cycle. Some people will question his aggression toward Sanders, but it seems to keep Biden focused and Sanders a bit off-balance.

All right folks, it’s end of the debate and Sanders and Biden finished by talking about the coronavirus and the fears many Americans feel in this moment. What do you make the whole event? Did it shift things going into Tuesday? And if not, how do you make sense of tonight?

I don’t know, that’s something I learned in journalism school when interviewing people who have lived through a tragedy. No matter what you personally have been through, never try to equate it to the tragedy at hand. Every tragedy is personal.

Sanders just said that people should be getting the health care they need “because they are Americans.” As a non-American, this doesn’t fill me with a ton of confidence about my prospects! But I can’t vote, either, so I guess it doesn’t matter.

Yeah, Kaleigh, that’s a bit odd to hear from him because there are few people who know the grief of losing a loved one as acutely as Biden does.

As tonight’s debate comes to a close, surprisingly Sanders has spent much more time directly attacking Trump than Biden has.

Biden says he can’t imagine what it must be like to have lost someone to COVID-19 or to not be able to visit a loved one.

Sanders uses the opportunity to point out how a crisis like this exacerbates and highlights the problem of wealth inequality in America.

The final debate topic returns to the coronavirus.

Fun word facts: Sanders’s third-most-common word has been “Joe,” which he’s said 44 times (Biden has said “Bernie” only 22 times). Biden’s third-most-common word has been “fact,” which he’s said 37 times.

Well, I agree with the broader point, Micah, but turnout was relatively strong among African American voters in 2016 — just not as strong as when you had the first black president on the ballot.

To the point about not drawing general election lessons from the primary: Just think about 2016, when Hillary Clinton essentially won the nomination thanks to overwhelming support among black voters but then lost the Electoral College, among many other reasons, because black turnout lagged 2008/2012. (That might have been inevitable, post-Obama, but it still proves the point.)

Seconded, Nathaniel. I’m skeptical of reading too much into the general from primary election results. Even in a high-turnout primary, you’re not going to see turnout in most states approach that of a general election.

The challenge of these debates is that Biden can’t quite say, “I’m always in the mainstream of the Democratic Party, so when I was wrong, Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama were wrong too, so it’s less bad.” And he seems unwilling to say that he evolved on various issues. But Sanders harping on votes from 20 years ago doesn’t quite work without him really connecting that to the future — Sanders says Biden got the war in Iraq wrong, but what does that say about what issues he might get wrong in the future? I have watched all these debates, and Sanders hasn’t quite communicated this to me.

Presumably this question is about Hispanics because of the fact that Univision is a cosponsor of this debate. But the bigger question for Biden is not his underperformance with Hispanics — as I said earlier, the exit polls have put him down by 10 points among Hispanics against Sanders, not a massive margin — but rather among young voters. Biden has gotten destroyed among young primary voters while Sanders has gotten crushed among old voters. Sanders makes this point here in that he’s attracted much more support from younger voters.

In general, though, I think it’s dangerous to say that enthusiasm or support for candidates in the primary will matter for the general election.

For what it’s worth, when I was reporting in California a few weeks ago, many people told me that the Sanders campaign was going to do really well among Latino voters because they made the investment in outreach to Latino communities — putting field offices in those communities, hiring organizers from those communities, building trust, and so on. The Biden campaign, meanwhile, has basically done no outreach to Latinos. And that seems to have made a big difference in states like California and Nevada. It’s not just about the issues, it’s also about actually trying to reach people and connect with them.

It’s pretty hard for Sanders to make this turnout argument when the turnout mostly seems to be increasing in strong Biden counties/states.

Neither Biden nor Sanders answer the question as to why they’re struggling with Hispanic voters and black voters, respectively.

The debate has now turned toward the candidates’ respective weaknesses, and the first question is why Biden hasn’t done better with Hispanic voters. I wonder if the age gap — or the fact that Sanders pretty much dominates the 18-to-29-year-old age group comes up, too.

Dana Bash asks Biden why Sanders has been winning Latino voters so far this year and if it might be a problem for him in the fall. Well, as Amelia and I are writing for the site tomorrow, Biden might be on the verge of a breakthrough with Latino voters on Tuesday — they’re not a monolith. One thing to remember about Latino voters is that they skew young, and younger voters obviously love Sanders.

Fundamentally, Biden’s argument that “Eight years of Obama-Biden prove you can trust me on X” seems like it works with Democratic voters against charges that he once held the wrong policy, etc.

Yes, Poll Bot, exit polls had Biden consistently winning among those voters who said foreign policy was their top issue, too — even when there were more candidates. Even somewhere like Iowa, where Biden didn’t do well overall, he got 43 percent of those voters who said foreign policy was their top issue (though only 13 percent said it was).

The fact-checkers are going to have a field day with Biden, who has supported efforts to limit Social Security and did vote for all of the things that Sanders just said he did.

The back-and-forth about whether there is room for nuance in views of Cuba or China was actually a really interesting philosophical debate. Rehashing the vote on the Iraq War for the 48,000th time is … not.

It’s unfortunate there’s so little room for nuance in modern political discourse.

Sanders’s points about China and Cuba might help him score if he and Biden were in a real debating society. But they might not help as much in a setting where the goal is to win votes.

Sanders now gives a convoluted answer on something that came up during an earlier 60 Minutes interview, his support of Fidel Castro’s literacy program. Tonight he didn’t walk back from that stance either. He said he condemns authoritarianism “whether it’s in Cuba, whether it’s in Saudi Arabia, whether it’s in China, or whether it is in Russia.” But he refused to unilaterally disavow Castro, saying that it’s incorrect to say someone like Castro didn’t have some positive impact on their people. It’s a nuanced answer, and he extends the parallel to China now, but I’m not sure that nuance comes across in a debate like this.

Sanders doesn’t seem to get that praising China and Cuba on anything is just not smart, even if there are policy areas where they’ve made some sort of progress. Biden basically just said that, too.

Biden takes the layup by slamming Sanders for saying that authoritarian regimes like Cuba, Nicaragua and China have accomplished some good things. Sanders responds by saying, “This is what’s wrong with politics,” and that there should be room for nuance in these discussions.

Yeah, Geoffrey, both of them have seemed quite vigorous tonight. Maybe that’s something they knew they needed to focus on given the coronavirus news.

This is a key difference — if you look at the exit polls in aggregate, Sanders has been winning by about 10 points over Biden among Hispanics. But that could definitely change in Florida, to Amelia’s point.

Sanders’s comments praising aspects of the Castro regime could be a real problem for him among Cuban Americans in Florida, for what it’s worth. He’s done very well among Latinos so far, particularly in states like California, but of course the Latino/Hispanic vote is not a monolith, and Biden is likely going to beat Sanders among Hispanic voters in Florida on Tuesday.

Biden gained this big lead in a part of the campaign that didn’t have a bunch of debates. He ran on electability, and a lot of people in the party endorsed and embraced him on that basis. Now that Sanders is on stage with Biden, Sanders is trying to create a debate around policy more than electability and argue that he got the policy decisions right in the past and therefore will in the future. That seems perfectly logical for Sanders — it’s a way for him to illustrate why he has running for president but not really hurt Biden. Biden is not afraid of the idea that he is to the right of Sanders.

The first question after the commercial break is about why Cuban Americans (who make up a lot of the population of Florida, which votes on Tuesday) should vote for Sanders given his comments praising aspects of Fidel Castro’s Cuba. For more on this topic, I recommend you visit FiveThirtyEight tomorrow morning!

Sarah, it seems like tonight Sanders is walking a very line between wanting to push Biden to the left and claiming that Biden embraced progressive policies too late, or not fully enough. I can see how it might be a little jarring for someone who has been out on a limb for so long to suddenly have other people start to claim your ideas. But that’s also the price of having the ideas you’ve fought for move into the mainstream, and it feels a bit like Sanders is wrestling with that tonight — is it good enough for Biden to start to embrace them, or put his own spin on them?

Was that an ad for Fox News on CNN?

That definitely seems to be happening, Sarah and I’d say he’s much more effective at using his time to push his agenda and try to sway Biden than, say, Steyer was when he tried to play that role in his last debate. Sanders isn’t just pitching his platform, he’s taking Biden to task for areas where Sanders thinks he falls short and trying to make the case that it makes sense to adopt some more liberal platform planks.