FiveThirtyEight
Laura Bronner

Fun word facts: Sanders’s third-most-common word has been “Joe,” which he’s said 44 times (Biden has said “Bernie” only 22 times). Biden’s third-most-common word has been “fact,” which he’s said 37 times.

Nate Silver

Well, I agree with the broader point, Micah, but turnout was relatively strong among African American voters in 2016 — just not as strong as when you had the first black president on the ballot.

Micah Cohen

To the point about not drawing general election lessons from the primary: Just think about 2016, when Hillary Clinton essentially won the nomination thanks to overwhelming support among black voters but then lost the Electoral College, among many other reasons, because black turnout lagged 2008/2012. (That might have been inevitable, post-Obama, but it still proves the point.)


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