That’s A Wrap

We’re calling it a night, folks. There are actually still a few interesting races left unresolved. In particular: The GOP primary for governor in Kansas, where Gov. Jeff Colyer and Kris Kobach are running neck-and-neck; and the special election in Ohio 12, where Republican Troy Balderson has what seems like a safe lead, but it’s small enough that we don’t expect the race to be called tonight.

Ohio 12 was the headline race going into the night and it basically went according to script. Balderson had a small lead according to an average of polls, and it looks like he’ll squeak it out. More broadly, Ohio 12 looks to have shifted by about 13 points towards Democrats relative to its partisan lean (how we would expect it to vote in a neutral political environment):

That’s just about in line with Democrats’ average overperformance in these elections in the Trump era. Special elections have been a good sign for Democratic midterm hopes for awhile now, and Ohio 12 was no exception (even if Balderson hangs on).

In any case, here’s our plan: We’ll have some additional analysis/thoughts on the night’s results (hopefully fully resolved by then) in a separate article going up early tomorrow morning. Please check back then.

In the meantime, thank you as always for watching the returns with us.