The political-analyst-in-chief has weighed in on Ohio:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1027026526871740417
As regular FiveThirtyEight readers know, the president has his facts wrong. First of all, we don't know how much Balderson was down in early balloting at that point; the state only releases the party breakdown of early voters, not the actual results. Second, early voting is often a very poor way to predict the outcomes of elections for that very reason -- voters don't always vote with the party they're registered with. Third, the election day vote is often very different from the early vote, as we saw tonight. In this case, enthusiasm was on Democrats' side, so they rushed to cast a ballot at their first opportunity. Republicans were content to just wait until today to vote.