What Went Down In Tuesday’s Primaries

There are still a handful of races left to be called. But there’s not much doubt about what’s going to happen, so we’re signing off. Here’s a wrap-up of everything that happened tonight:

• In Vermont, Democrat Christine Hallquist became the first transgender person in U.S. history to be nominated for governor by a major party, but she faces a very uphill climb in November against GOP Gov. Phil Scott, who survived a primary scare.
• In Connecticut, Democrat Ned Lamont will probably face Republican Bob Stefanowski (though his primary has yet to be called) in a battle of the multimillionaires for governor. Former National Teacher of the Year Jahana Hayes won the Democratic nomination in the 5th Congressional District and is quite likely to become Connecticut’s first black congresswoman.
• In Wisconsin, state Superintendent Tony Evers brings his experience being elected statewide three times into a November matchup with Republican Gov. Scott Walker; polls indicate that Walker (whom Democrats failed to topple in 2010, 2012 and 2014) could finally be vulnerable. Leah Vukmir will face U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in a race that has trended toward Democrats lately, and in Paul Ryan’s 1st District, Randy “Iron Stache” Bryce (and his $1.7 million war chest) will take on Republican Bryan Steil, Ryan’s chosen heir.
• Neither primary for Minnesota governor has been called, but it’s looking strongly like U.S. Rep. Tim Walz will represent Democrats and Jeff Johnson will represent Republicans. That’s a big blow to the GOP, which was relying on moderate former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (who left a lobbying gig in D.C. to run for his old job) to put this seat in play. With Johnson as the Republican nominee, Walz starts out this race the favorite.

We’re still waiting for a handful of results from Minnesota, but one thing is clear: It will be one of the most-watched states ahead of the November election, with competitive races for a handful of House seats, both Senate seats and a governor’s race.

In Minnesota’s GOP gubernatorial primary, we’re going to sign off before anything is called. But it’s difficult to see Pawlenty winning. He is about 9 percentage points with almost half of the vote in, and there is not a heavy-voting area where he is dominating.

Lots of interesting races tonight. But I have to admit that even I’m watching the primary results while also trying to figure out 1. is there really a chance that Trump used the “n” word? 2. could it possibly be on tape? 3. would it change opinions of him, from swing voters or his base?

One thing to remember for the Minnesota gubernatorial contest — this is going to be a difficult race for Republicans no matter their nominee. It’s an open seat in a state that Hillary Clinton carried in a cycle that’s likely to favor Democratic candidates. Where Republicans should feel a little more confident is in their congressional races in Minnesota, where Democrats are defending three open seats in districts that Donald Trump carried.

AP has called the Democratic primary for Minnesota attorney general for Rep. Keith Ellison. This could be a competitive race in the fall, particularly if the story about Ellison’s alleged abuse continues to develop. It could also become a problem for national Democrats; remember, he’s still deputy chair of the DNC.

As Nathaniel mentioned earlier, this race was pretty much already set. Pete Stauber, a Duluth police officer who played professional hockey in the Detroit Red Wings organization, is one of Republicans’ top recruits across the country. (Also, fun fact: His brother is the coach of the 2018 U.S. women’s Olympic hockey team.)

In Minnesota’s 1st District, the GOP looks well on its way to nominating Jim Hagedorn, who leads state Sen. Carla Nelson 67 percent to 25 percent. Hagedorn has lost three previous bids for this seat, but he still has insider support in this race, in more ways than one: He is in a relationship with the chair of the Minnesota Republican Party, which may have scared more formidable candidates away from this race.

Pawlenty could be losing because he attacked Trump. Or maybe his somewhat moderate conservatism doesn’t work anymore in the party. But we do remember his terrible 2012 presidential campaign, right? And that he was passed over for vice president in 2008 for Sarah Palin? Maybe he is not a very good politician?

With 33 percent of the Minnesota Senate vote counted, Painter-mentum does not seem to be happening. Sen. Tina Smith has 76 percent, and Richard Painter can’t seem to crack 15 percent.

Up to 31 percent reporting in Minnesota, and Jeff Johnson still leads Tim Pawlenty in the Republican primary for governor, 53 percent to 44 percent. We’re getting results from all around the state now, and it’s getting harder to see where Pawlenty is going to find a mother lode of support (Iron Range joke) big enough to close that gap.

Amy Klobuchar easily won her primary tonight. I think she will easily win in the general. If she clears, say, 60 percent in the general election, that would be something. She visited Iowa last year. She is not not interested in running for president. A female senator who wins big in the Midwest would seem to me to be someone who might get some presidential consideration. The Democrats are increasingly the party of female candidates. And they want to win in the Midwest after what happened in 2016.

There’s an interesting Democratic primary for lieutenant governor in Connecticut. Susan Bysiewicz ran for governor in 2006 (dropped out), governor in 2010 (dropped out), attorney general in 2010 (disqualified), U.S. Senate in 2012 (lost primary) and governor in 2018 (dropped out). This year, she’s running for lieutenant governor. (Lots of people have criticized her for her ambition, although I wonder how much of that is because of her gender. If a man said his childhood dream was to be governor of Connecticut, wouldn’t we find that precocious?) But first she’ll have to get through Eva Bermudez Zimmerman, who is the face of the new Democratic Party: a devout progressive union organizer, all of 30 years old, who would be Connecticut’s first Latina statewide official. With 60 percent reporting, the familiar (Bysiewicz) is beating the new (Bermudez Zimmerman) 64 percent to 36 percent.

A few comments on Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, which has been called. It will be a race between Republican Bryan Steil and Democrat Randy Bryce in the fall. Bryce launched his campaign months before House Speaker Paul Ryan announced that he would not seek re-election. As several others have pointed out, Bryce pulled in impressive money from around the country to defeat a national political figure. Stumping for Steil, Speaker Ryan argued: “I don’t think the 1st District of Wisconsin wants to go far left.” Ryan has disagreed with President Trump, resulting in an awkward fit with the national party. So making the race about the needs of the district rather than the national picture makes sense for his former aide and chosen successor. Moving forward, it’s possible that Bryce will pivot and make similarly district-oriented appeals. Or the national vs. local focus could be one more way for the Republican and Democratic candidates to clash.

The matchups for the 10 Democratic incumbents seeking re-election in Trump states are now set. (Florida hasn’t held its primaries yet, but Rick Scott will face Bill Nelson.) And Leah Vukmir is the only Republican woman nominated for any of those 10 races.

Evers, who has now won the Democratic nomination for governor in Wisconsin, has a real chance against Scott Walker. But Walker has won gubernatorial races in 2010, 2012 and 2014. And even Democrats in Wisconsin think Evers is dull. He will need the Democratic wave to push him to victory.

Only two African-Americans (Virginia’s Doug Wilder, Massachusetts’s Deval Patrick) have ever been elected governor of a state. There are already two black nominees this year, Maryland’s Ben Jealous and Georgia’s Stacey Abrams, both Democrats. But both of them are underdogs in the general election, because of dynamics that have little to do with them (Georgia is a red state, Jealous is facing incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan, one of the most popular governors in the country). In Wisconsin, another black gubernatorial hopeful, Mahlon Mitchell, would probably have had a better chance to win the general election than Abrams or Jealous, because Wisconsin is a swing state and Republican Gov. Scott Walker is fairly unpopular. But Mitchell lost to fellow Democrat Tony Evers in the gubernatorial primary.

With 33 percent reporting in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin, Vukmir leads Nicholson 57 percent to 38 percent. However, as Kyle Kondik pointed out on Twitter, you can probably expect Vukmir to do well in Milwaukee and its suburbs, while Nicholson will clean up in the rural parts of the state. Most of what’s reporting so far is from the Milwaukee area.

Perry, I wonder how much being a well-known politician could have hurt Pawlenty in this race. It seems like both parties are looking for fresh faces — like how Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ousted Rep. Joe Crowley or how Kara Eastman defeated a former congressman in her Nebraska primary.

Following up on Perry’s points about the Minnesota gubernatorial race, Pawlenty has been publicly critical of Trump, while Johnson has embraced the president. We’ve seen that pattern in a few other races, and the Trump critics tend not to be doing well in the Republican primaries. Pawlenty is still down by more than 10 points.

The Milwaukee County sheriff’s race has been called for Earnell Lucas. It’s a primary, but with no Republican on the ballot today, Lucas is most likely the next county sheriff. Lucas had the endorsements of U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. His election is likely to be seen as a repudiation of David Clarke’s legacy.

Ellison’s likely win means that the Democratic Party both in Minnesota and nationally will have to figure out how it wants to deal with the allegations of emotional and physical abuse against the congressman by his former girlfriend. Ellison will, if the numbers hold up, be the Democrats’ nominee for attorney general in Minnesota, and he is still also deputy chair of the Democratic National Committee.

With 89 percent reporting in Minnesota’s safely Democratic 5th District, it looks like the first Somali-American state legislator ever elected will be the first Somali-American U.S. representative ever elected. Ilhan Omar leads Margaret Anderson Kelliher in the Democratic primary 48 percent to 31 percent.

The abuse allegations don’t seem to have hurt Keith Ellison too badly. With 22 percent reporting, he’s leading the Democratic primary for Minnesota attorney general with 54 percent. His closest opponent is at 16 percent.

It looks like we have one potential upset with some national implications tonight. It’s the Minnesota GOP gubernatorial primary. It’s early, but former governor Tim Pawlenty is down 13 percentage points with 17 percent of the vote in. Pawlenty is a Jeb Bush-style Republican. Those kinds of Republicans can win GOP primaries in Maryland or Vermont. But can they win anywhere else?

More Wisconsin results are in — we’ll see what happens when the northwestern part of the state starts to come in, but right now, Leah Vukmir has a pretty big lead over Kevin Nicholson in the Republican U.S. Senate primary.

With 39 percent reporting in Paul Ryan’s district — Wisconsin’s 1st — Randy Bryce is in a close-ish race (considering how much money he raised) but is still comfortably ahead of Cathy Myers, 57 percent to 43 percent.

With 13 percent reporting in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor, Tony Evers is jumping out to a wide lead, as expected, with 40 percent of the vote. Mahlon Mitchell has emerged as his main competitor, but he’s stuck down at 23 percent.

Jahana Hayes, the 2016 National Teacher of the Year, has won the Democratic nomination in Connecticut’s 5th District. She’d be the first black congresswoman from Connecticut.

On the Democratic side of Minnesota governor, U.S. Rep. Tim Walz leads state Rep. Erin Murphy 41 percent to 36 percent. Lori Swanson, the presumed front-runner, is down at 21 percent. Swanson endured some controversies late in the race that might be dragging her down here. However, Murphy may also be doing unusually well because most of the vote so far is from the metro, and Murphy and her running mate are both (somewhat controversially) from the Twin Cities.

Julia, sounds like a millennial wrote that summary.

Our friends at Vox have a nice summary of the Wisconsin gubernatorial race but have made a terrible error. They list Bon Iver, which has endorsed Kelda Roys, as the state’s “most famed indie band.” That title obviously goes to the Violent Femmes.

Unfortunately not. Vermont not only has open primaries, but there is no party registration whatsoever, so we can’t know who’s a Democrat and who’s a Republican.

Vermont has open primaries, correct? Would we have any way to know whether a significant number of Democrats participated in the GOP primary to protect Scott?

Again, it’s early in Minnesota, but Tim Pawlenty, looking to become the state’s governor again, is losing so far to Jeff Johnson in the GOP primary. Johnson is up 13 percentage points with about 10 percent of the vote in.

Nathaniel — my line of 2018 is: Money is necessary but not sufficient to win an election. A huge(r) story would be if Randy Bryce, despite his eye-popping fundraising, comes short tonight in his primary race in Wisconsin’s 1st District.

It’s early in Minnesota (7 percent of precincts reporting), but Painter is at a kinda healthy 15 percent of the vote.

First early results in from Minnesota. Keith Ellison has a big lead, 53-17, over his closest rival in the attorney general’s race there.

Hallquist, as the first-ever transgender gubernatorial nominee, is another sign of how the country and politics is changing. She is not likely to be elected, since Scott is a fairly moderate Republican. But 2008 was one person breaking barriers; it feels like 2018 is a lot of different candidates achieving various firsts.

With 31 percent reporting in Connecticut, the Republican primary for governor is Stefanowski 28 percent, Boughton 25 percent and Stemerman 18 percent. Stemerman invested $13 million of his own money in this race; did he spend it all on lawn signs or something??

There are two key districts in Minnesota that we won’t mention much tonight, because both parties have already chosen who they’ll ride into battle with in November. In the 2nd District (which has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+2), the DFL endorsed former hospital executive Angie Craig, who almost beat now-Rep. Jason Lewis in 2016. Lewis has been hurt by the steady drip-drip of new revelations about offensive remarks he made on his pre-Congress radio show. And Democrats are excited about “vodka and gelato tycoon” Dean Phillips — and with that job description, who wouldn’t be? — to take on Rep. Erik Paulsen in the D+5 3rd District.

In the interviews I’ve been conducting with Democratic activists for my book, Biden’s is the name that comes up the most in the context of 2020. That doesn’t mean people are all lined up for him, but they’re considering it. Ideologically, I don’t know how to place him. He was at the party’s median the last time he was in the Senate, which was a decade ago.

The AP has called the Republican primary in Vermont for Gov. Phil Scott, so Republicans’ worst-case scenario won’t come to pass. This race stays “solid Republican” in the general election for now.

Definitely, Julia — I’m all for unpacking the whole “Joe Biden effect” this year. There doesn’t seem to be a single policy that unites the Joe Biden supporters — or the supporters of Rep. Cheri Bustos or even Rep. Tim Ryan. But I do see a coalition of politicians who do seem to be emulating Biden. Maybe it’s a personality thing? Or just a refusal to be tied to any one policy? But I don’t think those politicians fall neatly into a Bernie or Hillary wing, either.

Check me if I’m wrong here, but isn’t it kind of unusual for potential presidential candidates (assuming Biden is one) to endorse in primaries? There’s a risk in doing that, in that you make enemies in the party and can make wrong picks, as opposed to just backing people in the general election. That said, Biden and Warren seem to have picked well thus far.

Leah, do you think that means that Biden leads a wing of the party, or that he was a popular and effective vice president? One of the things I’ve puzzled about in trying to classify Biden (when doing work on vice presidential selection) is how to place him ideologically. He’s obviously not in the Warren camp. But he isn’t exactly Joe Manchin either. Rather, like Obama he can sorta draw from both liberal and moderate groups of voters.

Back to that “is there an Obama wing of the Democratic Party?” question real quick:

There’s also a Joe Biden wing that deserves some attention. I was interested in that table FiveThirtyEight published today that showed how successful the candidates Biden has endorsed have been so far. When we interview candidates at Inside Elections, Democrats tend to point to Biden more than any other politician as someone they’d like to emulate.