Kansas Upheld Abortion Rights And Other Key Updates From The Aug. 2 Elections

As we wait for more results to trickle in, let’s talk about this tweet from David M. Drucker at the Washington Examiner that caught some traction in late July for its sober take of the electoral environment, and all of the stories — including some from FiveThirtyEight — that have said the environment is improving for Democrats:

Essentially, Drucker’s point boils down to slow down, election analysts, we’ve been here before. Yes, Democrats might have an advantage now, but don’t expect that to last. Is Drucker … right? He certainly has history on his side — at least to some extent, “WIPEOUT” isn’t really an accurate descriptor for all midterm elections, some are worse than others — but is it also possible this midterm election will prove the exception, not the norm? Does it go back, in part, to what we were talking earlier about with Kansas?

The outcome of the Republican primary for Kansas governor was never in doubt, as Attorney General Derek Schmidt faced only one not-particularly-serious challenger. But still, we can say that one of the most hotly anticipated matchups of the year — Schmidt vs. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly — is now official.

“I’ve seen enoughs” aren’t election “calls” per se, but FWIW:

We’re at 12 percent reporting for the Democratic primary for Michigan’s 12th District. For now, well-known incumbent Rashida Tlaib is in the lead among the four candidates with about 57 percent of the vote. So far, nothing too surprising here.

With 11 percent of the expected vote reporting, Tudor Dixon has a strong lead in the Republican primary for Michigan governor. She was starting to pull away in the polls when Trump endorsed her a few days ago, so it’s not surprising to see her in the lead.

Latest count in Michigan’s GOP primary for governor

Results of Michigan’s Republican primary for governor, as of 8:58 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Tudor M. Dixon	55,643	43.3
Kevin Rinke	24,829	19.3
Garrett Soldano	23,795	18.5
Ryan D. Kelley	18,859	14.7
Ralph Rebandt	4,692	3.7
Write-ins	604	0.5

Abortion is already a big issue in Michigan, too. There’s been a significant amount of whiplash about whether the procedure is legal in the state over just the past day or so. Here’s the background: A 1931 law banning abortion was put on hold in May after the attorney general challenged its constitutionality. Then it was unfrozen by an appeals court and blocked again by another judge within the span of a few hours on Monday.

For obvious reasons, then, there’s been a lot of talk about abortion in Michigan politics recently. All of the gubernatorial candidates in the Republican primary oppose abortion, but Tudor Dixon got the endorsement of Michigan Right to Life, which is a big deal. The current governor, Gretchen Whitmer, is leaning into the issue too — she signed an executive order in July designed to protect abortion providers and patients from being extradited to states where abortion is illegal if they’re facing charges for performing or obtaining an abortion.

Meanwhile, it seems like this is going to stay a live issue. An abortion-rights group is working to get an amendment that would enshrine abortion rights into the Michigan Constitution on the ballot for November. They turned in a record number of signatures last month – the most in the state’s history.

Yeah Nathaniel, Dixon had already moved into the lead in the polls, but Trump’s endorsement made it pretty likely she would win. A number of well-known names and groups associated with the Michigan GOP had already lined up behind her, including the DeVos family, which former Trump Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos is part of.

We’re also getting some results in for Missouri’s 1st District, where Rep. Cori Bush faces multiple challenges from Democrats hoping to knock down the newest member of “the Squad.” While four Democrats are running against Bush, her most formidable opponent is state Sen. Steven Roberts, who is running as a moderate — or a “normal Democrat,” if you ask him. But it’ll take a lot for Roberts to oust Bush. For one, he’s had to overcome scandal amid allegations that he raped the late state Rep. Cora Faith Walker and groped a law student at a bar. He’s also well behind Bush in terms of fundraising. Early vote totals also seems to suggest Roberts has his work cut out for him tonight: With 6 percent of the expected vote in, Bush leads 64 percent to 30 percent.

During the 2011 redistricting cycle, Arizona’s independent redistricting commission drew a map that many Republicans decried as a Democratic gerrymander. This redistricting cycle, the commission drew a map that many Democrats decried as a Republican gerrymander.

The map does create six Republican-leaning seats and only two Democratic-leaning seats, a net gain of one for Republicans from the previous map. But based on the efficiency gap, it’s still a pretty fair map, and the median seat is reflective of the state as a whole as well.

Still, a number of Democratic incumbents could experience difficulties based on the map. Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran’s district has gone from a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+6 to R+15, inspiring a seven-candidate Republican field in the 2nd District. Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton’s seat has similarly gone from D+15 to D+1, and now five Republicans are running in his 4th District.

Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is retiring, but her district got redder too (from D+2 to R+7), giving the five Republicans running in the 6th District a much better shot of making it to Congress. Finally, the map gave headaches to one Republican, too: Rep. David Schweikert, whose district went from R+13 to R+7. Two Democrats are fighting today to take him on, although they would probably have a better shot in a less Republican-leaning national environment.

With primaries for eight different seats to watch, Arizona is arguably the center of the action tonight, including four major statewide races that will test how far to the right Republican primary voters want to go.

Senate: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is a top GOP target, and the Republican primary has become a race between former Thiel Foundation President Blake Masters and solar power businessman Jim Lamon, although Attorney General Mark Brnovich is also in the running. Masters is favored thanks to Trump’s endorsement and tons of outside support from the Club for Growth and tech billionaire Peter Thiel, but Lamon has spent millions out of pocket to cast Masters as a California liberal who favors “open borders” and who is “not right” for Arizona.

Governor: With Republican Gov. Doug Ducey term-limited, the GOP primary is a two-way race between former TV anchor Kari Lake and former Arizona Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson — and something of a proxy war between Trump, who supports Lake, and Ducey, who backs Robson. Lake has played to Trump’s base with her vocal support for Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election, but Robson has dramatically outspent her to make this a competitive race. Still, the polling generally finds Lake as the favorite coming into tonight; the winner will likely face Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, the Democratic front-runner.

Secretary of State: With Hobbs running for governor, this is an open-seat race that could impact the 2024 presidential election because of the secretary of state’s role in administering Arizona’s elections. State Rep. Mark Finchem leads the Republican field, and he not only backs Trump’s lies about the 2020 election, but he also attended the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol and has far-right associations with QAnon and the Oath Keepers, an anti-government militia. His main GOP opponent looks to be advertising executive Beau Lane, the only candidate in the Republican primary to acknowledge the legitimacy of Biden’s win. He’s also defended Arizona’s widespread use of early and absentee voting. Democrats, meanwhile, have a competitive race between former Maricopa County Clerk Adrian Fontes and state House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding, although their contest has featured many negative personal attacks.

Attorney General: As Brnovich is running for Senate, this open-seat race has attracted a crowded field of Republican candidates, most of whom have embraced Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election. What little polling we have suggests primary voters are likely to go for one of two election deniers: either former Maricopa County prosecutor Abraham Hamadeh, who earned Trump’s endorsement in mid-June, or attorney Rodney Glassman, a former Democrat. Former state Supreme Court Justice Andrew Gould is the only notable candidate who hasn’t fully backed the idea that the 2020 election was stolen, but he’s running third in the polls. The GOP nominee will face Kris Mayes, a former member of the state’s public utilities commission who is running unopposed in the Democratic primary.

1st District: In the GOP primary, scandal-plagued Republican Rep. David Schweikert is trying to fend off insurance company founder Elijah Norton in a race that’s gotten pretty ugly. Norton has attacked Schweikert for campaign finance violations and violations of House ethics rules, while Schweikert and his allies have criticized Norton for running an insurance company that allegedly defrauded customers and sent mailers to voters implying that Norton is gay. The winner will likely face businessman Jevin Hodge, who is favored in the Democratic primary.

2nd District: Rep. Tom O’Halleran is probably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the country, even though redistricting made this already GOP-leaning seat notably redder. The crowded Republican field includes Navy SEAL veteran Eli Crane, state Rep. Walt Blackman and businessman Mark DeLuzio — although Ron Watkins, who may be behind Q, the message board account that fueled the QAnon conspiracy theory, is also in the running. Most of the leading contenders are election deniers, including Crane, who is probably the favorite thanks to his fundraising edge and the fact that Trump endorsed him.

4th District: Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton faces a tough reelection fight in a purple seat, and he’ll likely face either former congressional staffer Tanya Contreras Wheeless or restaurant owner Kelly Cooper, the two leading contenders in the GOP primary. Wheeless has benefited from ample outside spending by national Republican organizations, but Cooper has self-funded a great deal to keep himself in the race.

6th District: With Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick retiring, this competitive but GOP-leaning open seat is a major GOP target. National Republicans have rallied behind Juan Ciscomani, a former advisor to Ducey. But while Ciscomani has handily outraised his main opponent, Maricopa County Community College District Governing Board member Kathleen Winn, his allies aren’t taking any chances, as they have spent over $1 million touting Ciscomani’s conservative credentials. That’s probably because Winn rejects the 2020 election result and has the backing of many notable right-wing figures in Arizona politics.

In this week’s Election Deniers At The Ballot Box, Kaleigh examines the Arizona candidates with ties to two different conspiracy theories: QAnon and the belief that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.

At first glance, Kansas’s new congressional map doesn’t look that different from its old one: There are three safe Republican districts and one swing seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids. But the map’s passage was still controversial: Republican legislators had to scrounge up a two-thirds majority in order to pass it over the veto of Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.

That’s because the map splits up majority-minority Wyandotte County in order to make Davids’s seat more winnable for Republicans. Her 3rd District used to have a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of D+4; now it’s R+3.

Shortly after its passage, Democrats sued over the map, and a lower-level state court initially ruled it an illegal gerrymander. However, the Kansas Supreme Court eventually ruled that the map was perfectly legal, officially putting it back in place. As a result, the winner of tonight’s GOP primary in the 3rd District will have a much better shot at getting elected to Congress in the fall.

Like Monica just said, in Democratic primaries you’ll usually have both candidates support access to abortion (although that wasn’t the case in Texas’s 28th District). And as Amelia and I wrote for the site, attitudes about abortion aren’t as split by gender as people assume. But I still think female candidates have an edge in Democratic versus Democratic contests when it comes to positioning themselves as more competent on the issue. Political science research has shown that people view women as better able to handle the issue than men, so it would make sense that female candidates would want to raise the salience of the issue in a Democratic primary.

While I’m also curious to see how the amendment vote shakes out, tonight I’ll be watching the race for the GOP nomination for attorney general in Kansas, where former Secretary of State Kris Kobach is running. As Nathaniel mentioned, you might remember Kobach for his role in Trump’s crusade to find evidence of election fraud … in the 2016 election. Though Trump won, he was convinced that his popular vote loss was proof that voter fraud was rampant. However, his Election Integrity Commission — led by Kobach — failed to find evidence of widespread fraud. Kobach went on to run for governor in 2018, as well as Senate in 2020, but was unsuccessful in both bids. So far, with a handful of counties reporting, Kobach is edging out state Sen. Kellie Warren with 39 percent of the vote to Warren’s 35.5 percent.

FiveThirtyEight is once again tracking the success of candidates endorsed by progressive groups and progressive leaders to monitor the movement’s influence within the Democratic Party. And as we wrote in 2020, thanks to an increasingly powerful progressive campaign apparatus, the left wing of the party is now an established player in its primaries. In this cycle, they’ve already challenged a handful of incumbent Democrats, as well as supported a number of progressive candidates in competitive races.

There are a few familiar progressives on the ballot today running for reelection — namely, Rep. Cori Bush in Missouri’s 1st District, Rep. Pramila Jayapal in Washington’s 7th District and Rep. Rashida Tlaib in Michigan’s 12th District. Both Bush and Tlaib are facing primary challenges, while Jayapal is running unopposed, but Bush and Tlaib seem to be on pretty solid ground with endorsements from Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Sunrise Movement and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Beyond those contests, there are two more progressive races we are watching closely. The most important of which is Michigan’s 11th District. Thanks to redistricting, this race is an incumbent-versus-incumbent matchup, with Rep. Haley Stevens running against Rep. Andy Levin. Stevens is endorsed by EMILY’s List, but Levin, as the progressive in the race, has support from Indivisible, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Our Revolution, Sunrise Movement and Sanders. But that impressive backing might not be enough to overcome Stevens’s financial advantage, which has come in large part thanks to AIPAC’s spending in this race, which Jacob noted earlier.

I’m also keeping a close eye on Marine veteran Lucas Kunce in Missouri’s Democratic Senate primary. This has become a particularly nasty race between him and Trudy Busch Valentine, a registered nurse and heiress to the Anheuser-Busch beer fortune, but progressive endorsers have weighed in with the PCCC and Sanders endorsing him. (Most of the other progressive groups and politicians we are tracking, though — Justice Dems, Our Revolution, Indivisible, Sunrise Movement, Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez — haven’t weighed in.) PCCC has described Kunce as “running a strong, populist campaign.” However, according to Politico, Kunce says he’s “not about left-right,” but rather, “about top-bottom.” This race is unlikely to be competitive in the general given Missouri’s red hue … but that is less true if Eric — in this case, Eric Greitens — wins.

Here’s a table of all the progressives I’ll be keeping an eye on tonight:

How progressives are doing tonight

Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Sen. Bernie Sanders or the Sunrise Movement and their results in Democratic primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington, as of 8:46 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Office	% Reporting	Vote Share	Status
Andy Levin*	MI-11	55%	41.7%	Trailing
Rashida Tlaib*	MI-12	11	56.4	Leading
Lucas Kunce	MO Sen.	1	25.9	Trailing
Raúl Grijalva*	AZ-07	0	0.0	—
Cori Bush*	MO-01	0	0.0	—
Pramila Jayapal*	WA-07	0	0.0	—

“My body, my choice” was actually used as a slogan by vaccine opponents in other contexts — including by people who oppose abortion. Language is fluid, man!

In Kansas, I’d just generally like to see more votes outside just the counties that lean blue or only somewhat red. It’s mostly those places that have reported so far, and with the early vote partisan split, that complicates getting an early read.

Amelia, yes, in a Democratic primary debate for Arizona’s 6th, Engel said she was outraged by the Dobbs decision. But for what it’s worth, Hernandez also said he supports access to abortion. So it’s at least an issue on that side of the race.

While we’re talking about the amendment in Kansas, something that stood out to me in this great story for the site by Amelia and Nathaniel was their reporting on some measures of civic engagement. For example, according to a spokesperson for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, the main organization opposing the amendment, the group went from having about 44 volunteers sign up per week to more than 500 volunteers per week after the Dobbs decision. I think these sorts of indicators are useful for understanding whether people are truly mobilized by events, or in this case, a SCOTUS decision.

Just remember that, in 2020, Biden won the absentee vote in Oklahoma by 18 points. Method of vote matters a lot.

What was interesting to me was that the “No” side really targeted its messaging, painting the amendment as a government mandate in the more Republican media markets, while airing ads more explicitly about abortion in some of the more Democratic-leaning parts of the state.

I just think we can think probabilistically. Clearly YES can win, but there’s definitely been info to move us from our priors.

We also don’t have a ton of polls to go off in this race. In fact, we’re aware of just one poll conducted by co/efficient that was shared exclusively with FiveThirtyEight in late July, that found that 47 percent of likely primary voters said they plan to vote for the amendment, while 43 percent said they plan to vote against it.

The mask mandate connection is really interesting, Amelia, as is the framing in that ad on the idea of big government trying to trick you with confusing ballot language.

The anti-amendment coalition was actually quite creative in how it messaged a “no” vote. There were ads implying that the amendment would lead to a full abortion ban, of course. But there were also ads arguing that the amendment was an infringement on Kansans’ bodily autonomy and personal freedom, connecting it to mask mandates.

Agreed, Monica. The vibe I have gotten (I’m originally from Kansas so I’ve seen a lot of friends and family on both sides talking about this over the last couple months) is that it was going to be “snuck” in under the radar of a boring primary. But it really lit a fire under the butts of opponents — particularly in combination with Dobbs.

Other sources have results from a half dozen counties, Sarah, and I don’t think there’s any intrinsic reason why you couldn’t extrapolate from one county. Like in 2024, if early results suggest that the Democratic nominee is losing in Brooklyn (Kings County) we can be pretty sure they’re losing the election.

One thing I’ve been watching out for is how abortion is playing out as an issue in the primaries in the wake of Dobbs. And it’s definitely showing up for Republicans and Democrats. In the Democratic race for Arizona’s 6th District, for example, Kirsten Engel has criticized her opponent, Daniel Hernandez, for missing a vote on a 15-week abortion ban earlier this year. And all of the candidates in the Republican primary for Arizona attorney general have said they’d enforce state laws that limit abortion access.

That doesn’t seems surprising, Amelia and Maggie, since it’s arguably the first test of Dobbs.

United Democracy Project, the Super PAC affiliated with the pro-Israel group American Israel Public Affairs Committee, only began operating this election cycle, but it has fast become one of the most influential players — and biggest spenders — in Democratic congressional primaries. It faces its biggest test yet tonight in Michigan’s 11th District, where it has spent about $4.2 million backing Rep. Haley Stevens over fellow Democratic Rep. Andy Levin.

UDP has spent more than $22 million across nine Democratic primaries, more than any other group, and has racked up wins against progressive candidates in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, and most recently in Maryland, where the group squashed former Rep. Donna Edwards’s comeback bid with $5 million of negative advertising (little if any of which had to do with Israel). Just one UDP-backed candidate has lost so far, in Pennsylvania’s 12th District; the spending spree has led progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders to go as far as declaring “war” on AIPAC over its efforts.

UDP’s involvement in Michigan’s 11th is different from the other races, though, for two reasons. First, the primary isn’t an open-seat contest or an incumbent facing a more progressive challenger. Instead, it’s a member-vs.-member contest caused by redistricting. (UDP is also backing a candidate in the more conventional open race for Michigan’s 13th District.)

Second, for the first time, UDP is backing a non-Jewish candidate, Stevens, against a Jewish candidate, Levin, who is the scion of one of the most prominent Jewish political families in Michigan. Levin, a progressive and a former labor organizer, has been vocal in his opposition to the Israeli government’s annexation and occupation of Palestinian territory, and he’s said that his lineage makes him “extra threatening” to groups such as AIPAC.

The Super PAC’s involvement has drawn condemnation from Sanders and several Jewish members of Congress. It’s also divided the district’s Jewish community. And another, more liberal pro-Israel organization, J Street, has tried to give Levin some cover, to the tune of $710,000. The group’s ads link Stevens to some of UDP’s more controversial backers, like billionaire Republican mega donor Bernie Marcus, in an attempt to paint the congresswoman as a secret Republican.

But in other races this cycle, J Street’s support hasn’t been enough to protect candidates from the UDP onslaught. Tonight, we’ll see if Levin’s deep roots in the district are enough to keep him afloat.

I drove through Kansas a couple of weeks ago, moving my dad to Minnesota from Oklahoma. While I definitely saw a lot of signage favoring the amendment, which I expected, I was surprised at the number of billboards and signs opposing it. People have been working to draw attention to this vote, both in liberal-leaning cities and in rural areas of the state, too.

Well, Nate, I think the pro-abortion-rights crowd is probably happy with what they’re seeing. But it’s necessary, not sufficient, for a win. We don’t know how strongly the election day vote will come in for “Yes.”

At this point, we have results from just one county, Nate!

Is it really too early to draw any conclusions about the amendment? It’s losing by a LOT.

Good evening all! I’ll be tracking results in Arizona’s 6th Congressional district, which is an open seat this year because incumbent Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (who represented the 2nd) is retiring. The southeastern Arizona district has become more Republican with redistricting, bringing in more rural areas outside of Tucson, and so Republicans are looking to pick this seat up. Five Republicans are running for their party’s nomination. Two candidates are running on the Democratic side, one of whom, Daniel Hernandez, is probably best known for being former Rep. Gabby Giffords’s intern and helping save her life after the 2011 shooting at her campaign event. But we won’t see results for until 10 p.m. Eastern.

As Nathaniel mentioned, I think most people expected this amendment to slide by without getting a lot of attention from voters. And that’s probably what would have happened if it weren’t for the Dobbs ruling. One thing I noticed when I was looking at the campaign filings is that the anti-amendment campaign got quite a few contributions from out of state, which is a sign that non-Kansas residents are tuned in — at least on the pro abortion-rights side.

In partial results in three Kansas counties so far, the Value Them Both amendment is failing with around 20-30 percent of the vote in each of them. It’s running way behind where Trump ran in the 2020 election, and if the same pattern holds up statewide, it would fail. HOWEVER, these are all early/absentee votes so far, and we know from experience that those votes skew more liberal than election-day votes. So it’s too early to draw any conclusions.

The first numbers are coming in from Missouri’s 7th District, putting state Sen. Eric Burlison in the lead with 36.7 percent of the vote. Burlison is endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the Club for Growth, and he is the only Missouri state senator to have signed the Club for Growth’s anti-tax pledge, promising to vote against bills that would raise taxes for basically any reason on principle. The Club for Growth’s PAC has spent a couple hundred thousand supporting Burlison … but they’ve spent more than a million dollars trying to stop former state Sen. Jay Wasson, who is Burlison’s main competition.

Latest count in Missouri’s 7th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Missouri’s 7th Congressional District, as of 8:25 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Eric Burlison	169	36.7
Jay Wasson	100	21.7
Sam Alexander	56	12.1
Alex Bryant	37	8.0
Audrey Richards	37	8.0
Paul Walker	26	5.6
Mike Moon	25	5.4
Camille Lombardi-Olive	11	2.4

With about 41 percent of the vote reporting in Michigan’s 11th District, according to the AP, Rep. Haley Stevens is leading her colleague Rep. Andy Levin, 59 percent-41 percent. As Nathaniel mentioned just now, the two were drawn into the same district by Michigan’s citizen redistricting commission, and the race has seen heavy outside spending.

For the first time this year, Michigan’s new congressional districts were drawn by an independent redistricting commission created by a ballot measure in 2018. As a result, Michigan now has arguably the fairest congressional map in the nation, with an efficiency gap of only 0.3 percentage points in favor of Democrats.

The new map shook up the old one enough that it greatly scrambled this year’s congressional races. For example, Republican Rep. Peter Meijer’s 3rd District is now slightly Democratic-leaning rather than Republican-leaning, making electability more important in the GOP primary there (Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump, is facing a serious primary challenge from a less moderate candidate).

The map also initially set up two incumbent-versus-incumbent primaries. In the Detroit suburbs, Democratic Rep. Andy Levin’s district got significantly redder (a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+6), prompting him to challenge fellow Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens in the blue 11th District. And in Western Michigan, GOP Reps. Bill Huizenga and Fred Upton were also thrown into the same district; however, Upton decided to retire rather than risk losing to his colleague.

In an effort to achieve partisan parity, the commission also controversially decreased the Black share of the population in Detroit’s 12th and 13th districts, making it less certain that those districts will elect Black voters’ candidates of choice. This could end up mattering in the Democratic primary for the open 13th District, too, where there are several strong Black candidates but only one major non-Black candidate (state Rep. Shri Thanedar), who could win with a plurality of the vote.

Yeah, Amelia, it’s confusing — and it could benefit the pro-abortion-rights side, since there is generally a status-quo bias in ballot measure campaigns that edges people to vote “no” if they’re unsure.

Maybe it’s something about the desert. Just as we saw a gaggle of election-denying candidates in the New Mexico and Nevada primaries, there’s a surplus of election deniers running in Arizona tonight.

In the Republican primary for governor, the two front-runners have taken very different approaches to Trump’s election fraud claims — one full throatedly embracing his lies and one demurring. At a debate in June, one of the race’s front-runners, former TV host Kari Lake, said Biden “lost the election, and he shouldn’t be in the White House,” a claim she has repeated throughout the campaign. She then asked her fellow candidates to raise their hand if they “would agree we had a corrupt, stolen election.” The race’s other front-runner, Karrin Taylor Robson, refused, saying she wouldn’t “play [Lake’s] stunt.” Later, Lake tweeted that Robson’s refusal was “disqualifying” and “sickening.”

The GOP race for secretary of state is also full of election-denying candidates. One of the front-runners, Trump-endorsed state Rep. Mark Finchem, is an avid supporter of Trump’s lie that he won the 2020 election. He’s been heavily involved in the “Stop the Steal” movement from Day 1, including helping to plan and then attend the Jan. 6 rally that preceded the attack on the Capitol. State Rep. Shawnna Bolick hasn’t raised as much money as Finchem, but she introduced a bill that would have allowed the state legislature to overturn election results. Moreover, both she and Finchem have said they wouldn’t have certified the 2020 election results in Arizona had they been secretary of state at the time. There is one candidate who has acknowledged the legitimacy of Biden’s win: advertising executive Beau Lane. Notably, Lane has raised as much money as Finchem, making him also a front-runner in this race.

It’s not just statewide races, either. Arizona’s 2nd District has also attracted some election-denying candidates vying for the Republican nomination, including Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL Eli Crane. Crane has called for the Arizona State Legislature to decertify the 2020 results and has said there was “widespread fraud of the 2020 election.” Another serious contender in this race, state Rep. Walter Blackman, has also said the 2020 election was stolen, even signing a letter asking Congress to accept invalid “alternate” electors to elect Trump.

But, of course, it’s not just the desert — there are election deniers all over the map tonight. In the absolutely flooded Republican race for Senate in Missouri, at least six of the 21 candidates have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and another has at least questioned the results. That includes the current front-runner, Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, who joined Texas in a lawsuit aimed at overturning the results of the election. And in Washington, the GOP race for the 3rd District has also drawn multiple election-deniers as Republicans try to oust Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who voted to impeach Trump. Trump’s endorsee in that race, former Army Green Beret Joe Kent, signed on to multiple lawsuits against Washington alleging voter fraud and claimed in a campaign ad that there was “rampant voter fraud” in 2020.

Throughout the primaries, we’ve been tracking the candidates who have embraced Trump’s baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen. For races that had been called through the end of June, we identified at least 346 primary candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election, 120 of whom won their races. There’s clearly no shortage of election-denying candidates hoping to join their ranks tonight.

Here’s a table of all the candidates I’ll be watching tonight.

How election deniers are doing tonight

Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington, as of 8:25 p.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE	OFFICE	Position on 2020 election	% REPORTING	VOTE SHARE	STATUS
Joan Farr	KS Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	1%	21.5%	Trailing
Derek Schmidt	KS Gov.	❓Raised doubts	1	73.4	Leading
Tudor M. Dixon	MI Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	4	46.8	Leading
Kevin Rinke	MI Gov.	❓Raised doubts	4	23.1	Trailing
Ryan D. Kelley	MI Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	4	13.6	Trailing
Garrett Soldano	MI Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	4	12.9	Trailing
Ralph Rebandt	MI Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	4	3.5	Trailing
Hima Kolanagireddy	MI-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	1	56.5	Leading
Lisa McClain*	MI-09	🚫 Denied legitimacy	6	78.8	Leading
Michelle R.E. Donovan	MI-09	🚫 Denied legitimacy	6	21.2	Trailing
John James	MI-10	❓Raised doubts	1	92.5	Leading
Tony Marcinkewciz	MI-10	🚫 Denied legitimacy	1	7.5	Trailing
James Hooper	MI-12	❓Raised doubts	2	31.0	Trailing
Vicky Hartzler	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	36.0	Leading
Eric Schmitt	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	32.4	Trailing
Eric Greitens	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	14.4	Trailing
Mark McCloskey	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	5.8	Trailing
Billy Long	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	4.6	Trailing
Bernie Mowinski	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.2	Trailing
Hartford Tunnell	MO Sen.	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	Trailing
Mark Alford	MO-04	❓Raised doubts	0	58.0	Leading
Jacob Turk	MO-05	🚫 Denied legitimacy	2	57.4	Leading
Sam Graves*	MO-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	1	41.1	Leading
Dakota Shultz	MO-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	1	13.7	Trailing
John Dady	MO-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	1	5.9	Trailing
Eric Burlison	MO-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	36.7	Leading
Jay Wasson	MO-07	❓Raised doubts	0	21.7	Trailing
Sam Alexander	MO-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	12.1	Trailing
Paul Walker	MO-07	❓Raised doubts	0	5.6	Trailing
Mike Moon	MO-07	❓Raised doubts	0	5.4	Trailing
Camille Lombardi-Olive	MO-07	❓Raised doubts	0	2.4	Trailing
Mark Brnovich	AZ Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Jim Lamon	AZ Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Blake Masters	AZ Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Kari Lake	AZ Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Scott Neely	AZ Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Matt Salmon	AZ Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Paola “Z.” Tulliani-Zen	AZ Gov.	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Shawnna Bolick	AZ SoS	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Mark Finchem	AZ SoS	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Rodney Glassman	AZ AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Dawn Grove	AZ AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Abraham “Abe” Hamadeh	AZ AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Tiffany Shedd	AZ AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Josh Barnett	AZ-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Elijah Norton	AZ-01	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
David Schweikert*	AZ-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Walter “Walt” Blackman	AZ-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Eli Crane	AZ-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Mark DeLuzio	AZ-02	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
John Moore	AZ-02	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Ron Watkins	AZ-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Jeff Zink	AZ-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Kelly Cooper	AZ-04	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Jerone Davison	AZ-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Dave Giles	AZ-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Andy Biggs*	AZ-05	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Juan Ciscomani	AZ-06	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Brandon Martin	AZ-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Kathleen Winn	AZ-06	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Luis Pozzolo	AZ-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Debbie Lesko*	AZ-08	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Paul Gosar*	AZ-09	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Randy Kutz	AZ-09	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Mike Brown	KS SoS	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Kris Kobach	KS AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Tracey Mann*	KS-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Jake LaTurner*	KS-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
John A. McCaughrean	KS-03	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Ron Estes*	KS-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Jack Bergman	MI-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Thomas J. Norton	MI-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
John Gibbs	MI-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Sherry O’Donnell	MI-05	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Tim Walberg*	MI-05	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Tom Barrett	MI-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Matthew Seely	MI-08	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Wesley Smith	MO-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Paul Berry III	MO-02	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Brandon Wilkinson	MO-03	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Blaine Luetkemeyer*	MO-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Jason Smith*	MO-08	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Leon Lawson	WA Sen.	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Tamborine Borrelli	WA SoS	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Matthew Heines	WA-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Cody Hart	WA-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Carrie R. Kennedy	WA-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Vicki Kraft	WA-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Heidi St. John	WA-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Joe Kent	WA-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Corey Gibson	WA-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Loren Culp	WA-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Brad Klippert	WA-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Benancio “Benny” Garcia III	WA-04	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Jerrod Sessler	WA-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Paul Glumaz	WA-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Jesse Jensen	WA-08	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Scott Stephenson	WA-08	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Doug Basler	WA-09	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Keith R. Swank	WA-10	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Dan Earnest Gordon	WA-10	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—

Just a reminder that when we’re talking about the Kansas abortion amendment, “yes” is a vote for the amendment — which is to say, “no, abortion should not be included under the Kansas state constitution” — and “no” is a vote against the amendment. The wording of the amendment is pretty confusing, and there have been reports of misinformation floating out there about what a “yes” or “no” vote means.

We’re watching seven contests in Michigan, and while the GOP primary for governor is the headline race, primaries in six of the state’s congressional seats also showcase some intra-party divisions.

Governor: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is up for reelection, but which GOP opponent she’ll face in the fall has been uncertain, as the GOP’s leading candidates failed to make the primary ballot back in late May. Election authorities disqualified former Detroit Police Chief James Craig and businessman Perry Johnson because of thousands of forged signatures in their nominating petitions, which created room for a new front-runner to emerge: Conservative media personality Tudor Dixon. She already had a slight edge in the polls before Trump endorsed her, but businessman Kevin Rinke, chiropractor Garrett Soldano and real estate broker Ryan Kelley, who attended the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, are all in the race, too.

3rd District: Republican Rep. Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 attack, now faces a primary challenge from John Gibbs, a former Trump administration official who has Trump’s endorsement. Meijer and his allies have a huge spending advantage, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has bought ads on behalf of Gibbs in the belief that he’ll be easier to beat in the competitive seat this November. This move has angered many congressional Democrats, however, who criticized the DCCC for boosting an election denier against Meijer, the rare Republican who backed Trump’s impeachment and disputes Trump’s false election claims.

8th District: Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is vulnerable under the new district lines, and the GOP primary looks to be a contest primarily between former Trump administration official Paul Junge and businessman Matthew Seely. Junge has been named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Young Guns” list and raked in a whopping $1.4 million, but Seely has raised a respectable $535,000 and was a vocal proponent of Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

10th District: Following redistricting, no incumbent decided to run in this red-leaning seat. Republicans have coalesced around John James, the party’s 2018 and 2020 nominee for Senate, but Democrats have a competitive primary. Early polling gave a healthy lead to former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga, who has been in Michigan politics forever. But attorney Huwaida Arraf and Warren City Council Member Angela Rogensues have outraised Marlinga. They’ve also criticized him for previously comparing his judicial philosophy to those of Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas, though he says he supports abortion rights.

11th District: Next door, Democratic Reps. Andy Levin and Haley Stevens are facing off to represent this Democratic-leaning seat after Levin opted to run here instead of in the redder 10th District. But while this seat has more of Stevens’s old district, that may not give her much of an edge, as 38 percent of the seat’s 2020 Biden voters are her constituents, compared with 29 percent who are Levin’s. However, while Levin has support from progressives and several labor unions, Stevens has backing from retiring Democratic Rep. Brenda Lawrence (who represents almost a third of this seat currently) and more than $7 million in outside spending from groups like American Israel Public Affairs Committee and EMILY’s List. This arguably has helped Stevens gain an edge in the polls heading into primary day.

12th District: Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a staunch progressive who is associated with “The Squad,” a group of mostly Democratic women of color in Congress, faces a primary challenge from Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey in this solidly blue seat. But Tlaib has vastly outraised Winfrey, and Winfrey’s support from outside groups appears insufficient to oust the incumbent.

13th District: This deep blue, Detroit-based seat and its predecessors have elected a Black member of Congress ever since 1954, but that streak could end with Lawrence retiring and the seat having lost Black constituents in the redistricting process. State Rep. Shri Thanedar, who is Indian American, has self-funded with more than $8 million and is arguably the front-runner. He may also be aided by the sizable number of Black candidates in the race, who could fragment the Black vote. State Sen. Adam Hollier has attracted millions in outside support, but Lawrence has endorsed nonprofit CEO Portia Roberson. John Conyers III, son of former Democratic Rep. John Conyers Jr., and former Detroit General Counsel Sharon McPhail are also running.

Missouri really shouldn’t be that hard of a state to redistrict; Republicans have full control of state government, and its political geography is relatively simple. Yet the Show Me State was one of the last states to draw its congressional maps.

A group of hardline conservatives in the state legislature blocked the passage of a map for months, insisting that the state eliminate the blue 5th District around Kansas City and convert it into a red seat. Their effort eventually failed, however, as mainstream Republicans eventually forced a map through that closely resembled the status quo of six Republican-leaning seats and two Democratic-leaning seats. As a result, the new map hasn’t created any new opportunities for either party.

However, it did create some stress for this year’s aspiring congressional candidates. Missouri’s filing deadline actually passed before a new map did, so everyone had to guess at which district they would want to run in at the end of the day. And a few unlucky candidates did end up getting drawn out of the district they were running in and had to drop out as a result.

Just to put that into context, Nathaniel, turnout in midterm primaries typically top out around 30 percent. The primary turnout in Kansas in 2018 was 27.1 percent.

Good evening! I’m watching the Republican primary in the Missouri 7th district, where eight different people are vying for the seat Billy Long is leaving in order to run for Senate. If you’ve heard of Billy Long outside Missouri, it’s probably from the time back in 2018 when he launched into his professional auction calling voice and pretended to auction off the phone of far right social media personality Laura Loomer after she attempted to disrupt an Energy and Commerce Committee hearing. But don’t assume from that incident that this is a liberal district. The 7th is solidly red. Whoever wins this primary is likely to win the general, as well. And this race is HEATED. Missouri has term limits on the state legislature, but with none at the federal level, up-and-comers basically have to dogpile on the rare federal race that doesn’t involve an incumbent. (There are two state senators and a former state senator in this single race.) In a district like the 7th, that means distinguishing yourself from the pack by moving further right and painting your opponents as RINOs. One of the front runners, state Senator Eric Burlison declared himself “the most conservative lawmaker in [state capital] Jeff City” during a recent debate.

Voters are about to get their first opportunity to weigh in on abortion’s legality since the Supreme Court overruled the constitutional right to abortion in June.

Well, some voters, anyway.

In the Kansas primary, residents are voting on a proposed amendment to the state constitution, which says that abortion is not covered under the constitution’s bill of rights. The amendment itself won’t decide abortion’s legality in Kansas. But if it passes, it will almost certainly pave the way for much more restrictive abortion laws.

If it fails, abortion will remain protected under the Kansas Constitution, since the state Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that abortion is covered under the right to personal autonomy. In fact, that ruling conferred an even stronger protection for abortion rights than the U.S. Constitution did with Roe v. Wade, which has meant that even though the state leans Republican and the Kansas Legislature is very conservative, abortion remains legal until 22 weeks of pregnancy in the state, albeit with some restrictions like mandatory ultrasounds.

The first and only publicly released poll of the campaign, conducted from July 17-18 by co/efficient and shared exclusively with FiveThirtyEight, suggested that the vote could be close. In that poll, Forty-seven percent of likely primary voters said they planned to vote for the amendment, while 43 percent said they planned to vote against it. That’s a surprisingly narrow margin, given Kansas’s overall red hue. The outcome will likely hinge on turnout, too, as primary elections usually see lower turnout than general elections.

The Supreme Court’s ruling in June, however, appears to have motivated the amendment’s opponents. The main group behind the campaign against the amendment has raised about $6.5 million since the beginning of the year — including $100,000 on the day of the Supreme Court’s ruling alone, according to a spokesperson — while the coalition supporting the amendment has raised about $4.7 million.

The stakes of the vote are high, as both sides are eager to point out. Three of the four states that border Kansas have either already banned abortion or are likely to do so in the future. (Abortion will remain legal in Colorado, where it’s protected.) For anyone wondering how much the issue of abortion is motivating Americans in the lead-up to the midterm elections in November, this vote will be an early but important bellwether.

When the Value Them Both amendment was put on the ballot in Kansas last year, I think a lot of people assumed that turnout would be low and limited to just people who were voting in Kansas’s primary elections on the same day. That, uh, does not seem to have panned out. By all accounts, turnout in Kansas is through the roof today, with the secretary of state suggesting that half of voters statewide will cast a ballot (it’s unclear if he meant half of registered voters or half of eligible voters). That strongly suggests that the abortion-related ballot measure is driving turnout, not the state’s sleepy primaries.

According to the latest numbers from the Center for American Women in Politics, women comprise 30 percent of all House nominees and 23 percent of all Senate nominees in primaries thus far. That is lower, however, than their share in 2020, when 35 percent of House nominees and 31 percent of Senate nominees were women.

One explanation for why fewer women than men hold elected office is that they are just less likely to run, but as I’ve written at FiveThirtyEight, external support and encouragement are effective ways to lower the costs of entry for women, and both Republicans and Democrats have made investments on this front in recent years. It’s why we’ve been tracking endorsements from groups in both parties whose mission it is to increase women’s representation.

For Democrats, Emily’s List is one of the biggest groups that backs women, primarily supporting pro-choice women, and tonight, several women this group is backing could win their House races. In Arizona, for instance, there’s former state Sen. Kirsten Engel in the 6th District, who has made abortion a big focus in this primary, comparing her track record on the issue to her competitor, state Rep. Daniel Hernandez Jr.

And in Michigan, Emily’s List-backed candidates could win a handful of House races, too, including the 3rd District where attorney Hillary Scholten is running unopposed in a district that, thanks to redistricting, is now more favorable to Democrats. I’ll talk more about the 11th District in my preview of the progressive races I’m watching, but suffice it to say, Emily’s List has backed Rep. Haley Stevens, who could very well best fellow Democratic Rep. Andy Levin in this incumbent-vs-incumbent matchup. Things are less clear in Michigan’s 13th District, though, as the Emily’s List-backed candidate, nonprofit CEO Portia Roberson faces a crowded field.

Below is a table of all the Democratic women who are on the ballot tonight that I’ll be watching:

How Democratic women are doing tonight

Women running for Senate, House and governor and their results in Democratic primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington, as of 8:12 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Office	% Reporting	Vote Share	Status
Trudy Busch Valentine	MO Sen.	0%	47.8%	Leading
Carla Coffee Wright	MO Sen.	0	6.1	Trailing
Gena Ross	MO Sen.	0	5.7	Trailing
Katie Hobbs	AZ Gov.	0	0.0	—
Kirsten Engel	AZ-06	0	0.0	—
Laura Kelly*	KS Gov.	0	0.0	—
Sharice Davids*	KS-03	0	0.0	—
Gretchen Whitmer*	MI Gov.	0	0.0	—
Hillary Scholten	MI-03	0	0.0	—
Debbie Dingell*	MI-06	0	0.0	—
Elissa Slotkin*	MI-07	0	0.0	—
Huwaida Arraf	MI-10	0	0.0	—
Rhonda Powell	MI-10	0	0.0	—
Angela Rogensues	MI-10	0	0.0	—
Haley Stevens*	MI-11	0	0.0	—
Shanelle Jackson	MI-12	0	0.0	—
Rashida Tlaib*	MI-12	0	0.0	—
Janice Winfrey	MI-12	0	0.0	—
Sherry Gay-Dagnogo	MI-13	0	0.0	—
Sharon McPhail	MI-13	0	0.0	—
Portia Roberson	MI-13	0	0.0	—
Lorrie Rutledge	MI-13	0	0.0	—
Cori Bush*	MO-01	0	0.0	—
Trish Gunby	MO-02	0	0.0	—
Bethany Mann	MO-03	0	0.0	—
Maite Salazar	MO-05	0	0.0	—
Kristen Radaker-Sheafer	MO-07	0	0.0	—
Randi McCallian	MO-08	0	0.0	—
Patty Murray*	WA Sen.	0	0.0	—
Suzan DelBene*	WA-01	0	0.0	—
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	WA-03	0	0.0	—
Natasha Hill	WA-05	0	0.0	—
Ann Marie Danimus	WA-05	0	0.0	—
Rebecca Parson	WA-06	0	0.0	—
Pramila Jayapal*	WA-07	0	0.0	—
Kim Schrier*	WA-08	0	0.0	—
Stephanie Gallardo	WA-09	0	0.0	—
Marilyn Strickland*	WA-10	0	0.0	—

Republican women’s groups don’t have the same financial muscle as Emily’s List, but they’ve also backed some House candidates who look likely to win tonight. For instance, Maggie’s List, which supports conservative women, has backed former congressional staffer Tanya Contreras Wheeless, a front-runner in the GOP primary in Arizona’s 4th District. Meanwhile, in Kansas’s 3rd District, Maggie’s List backed former Kansas Republican Party Chair Amanda Adkins, who is expected to win tonight and face Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids in the fall. Things are more competitive in Washington’s 3rd District, but Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who voted to impeach Trump, also has the support of Maggie’s List as well as a second women’s group, VIEW PAC.

Below is a table of all the Republican women on the ballot tonight whom I’ll be watching:

How Republican women are doing tonight

Women running for Senate, House and governor and their results in Republican primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington, as of 8:11 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Office	% Reporting	Vote Share	Status
Vicky Hartzler	MO Sen.	0%	18.7%	Trailing
Kari Lake	AZ Gov.	0	0.0	—
Karrin Taylor Robson	AZ Gov.	0	0.0	—
Paola “Z.” Tulliani-Zen	AZ Gov.	0	0.0	—
Tanya Contreras Wheeless	AZ-04	0	0.0	—
Lucretia Free	AZ-06	0	0.0	—
Kathleen Winn	AZ-06	0	0.0	—
Nina “La Nina” Becker	AZ-07	0	0.0	—
Debbie Lesko*	AZ-08	0	0.0	—
Sandra E. Dowling	AZ-09	0	0.0	—
Joan Farr	KS Sen.	0	0.0	—
Amanda L. Adkins	KS-03	0	0.0	—
Tudor M. Dixon	MI Gov.	2	0.0	—
Sherry O’Donnell	MI-05	0	0.0	—
Hima Kolanagireddy	MI-06	0	0.0	—
Whittney Williams	MI-06	0	0.0	—
Candice Miller	MI-08	0	0.0	—
Michelle R.E. Donovan	MI-09	0	0.0	—
Lisa McClain*	MI-09	0	0.0	—
Laura Mitchell-Riley	MO-01	0	0.0	—
Ann Wagner*	MO-02	0	0.0	—
Kalena Bruce	MO-04	0	0.0	—
Audrey Richards	MO-07	0	0.0	—
Camille Lombardi-Olive	MO-07	0	0.0	—
Tiffany Smiley	WA Sen.	0	0.0	—
Carrie R. Kennedy	WA-02	0	0.0	—
Jaime Herrera Beutler*	WA-03	0	0.0	—
Vicki Kraft	WA-03	0	0.0	—
Heidi St. John	WA-03	0	0.0	—
Cathy McMorris Rodgers*	WA-05	0	0.0	—
Elizabeth Kreiselmaier	WA-06	0	0.0	—

Stay tuned as I update the live blog tonight to see how these women are doing in their races.