Kansas Upheld Abortion Rights And Other Key Updates From The Aug. 2 Elections

Yeah, Sarah, Arizona is also in a weird situation right now because it’s not clear to what extent abortion is legal, or if it’s legal at all. There’s a 1864 abortion ban that’s still on the books, which Attorney General Mark Brnovich says is enforceable. Then there is a 15-week abortion ban that was passed earlier this year, which will go into effect in September. Gov. Doug Ducey has said (contrary to Brnovich) that this law will take precedence over the 1901 ban — so not a lot of clarity there.

Adding to the confusion, a 2021 law that banned abortions for fetal genetic abnormalities included a provision that confers “on behalf of an unborn child at every stage of development, all rights, privileges and immunities available to other persons, citizens and residents of this state.” That law has been blocked too, but if it’s allowed to go into effect, it could mean that performing an abortion at any stage of pregnancy isn’t just a crime — it’s murder.

Given all of the confusion, Arizona’s Planned Parenthood affiliates have stopped providing abortions in the state until the legal landscape becomes clearer, and other independent providers have done the same. So it’s really difficult — if not impossible — to get an abortion in Arizona right now, and there are already reports that California clinics are seeing an influx of Arizona patients. So all of that could raise the salience of the issue in the midterms.

We’re finally getting some early results for the Democratic primary in Michigan’s now-open 10th District, where five Democrats are duking it out for control of the seat. As Nathaniel and Geoff previously wrote, some polling ahead of Tuesday gave Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga, who has deep roots in the district, a somewhat healthy lead. But he was out-fundraised by both civil rights attorney Hawaida Arraf and Warren City Councilmember Angela Rogensues, meaning that there wasn’t really a clear front-runner going into tonight. With just 5 percent of the expected vote in, however, Marlinga currently leads Arraf 38 percent to 26 percent.

I do, think, though back to a point Kaleigh was making earlier on the liveblog, abortion could play out in a lot of local, state races in interesting ways we wouldn’t expect, and it could help Democrats in states like Arizona where the Democratic candidate will be the only candidate in favor of protecting abortion rights.

One other point I’ll cite in my favor of my argument in Kansas — which is that abortion might prove to be an effective issue for Democrats that doesn’t translate to other Democratic wins — goes back to something CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy found in July, which is Americans think both parties are pretty mainstream (YMMV on that one) — except when it comes to abortion. There, Americans think Republicans are too extreme.

ABC News projects that Rep. Cori Bush will win the Democratic primary in Missouri’s 1st District. With 14 percent of the expected vote counted, Bush holds a healthy lead over Roberts — 64 percent to 30 percent. To be sure, Bush should be pretty safe in November, too, as her district has a partisan lean of D+52.

Latest count in Missouri’s 1st District Democratic primary

Results of the Democratic primary for Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, as of 9:39 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Cori Bush*	10,129	64.3
Steve Roberts	4,702	29.9
Michael Daniels	435	2.8
Ron Harshaw	290	1.8
Earl Childress	187	1.2

Jacob, I would love to see some internal polls there. I also heard some whispers that Meijer was in a ton of trouble, but between the DCCC maybe giving him something to attack and his massive spending advantage, he might be able to pull this out.

Geoff, if Meijer survives I think there’s going to be some serious questioning of the DCCC’s strategy to intervene in that primary’s closing weeks. From all the data I had seen and heard about, Meijer was in a really tough spot prior to the DCCC stepping in to boost Gibbs, and that meddling could have given him an effective cudgel to wield against his opponent, by calling him a Pelosi puppet.

It’s interesting, Nate, and goes back to something Amelia and Jacob were talking about earlier. Maybe abortion boosts Democratic candidates in red states, but at the same time, these states don’t end up backing more Democratic candidates. There are interesting parallels one could draw here, too, to how Medicaid expansion has worked in red states when voted on as a ballot initiative.

Obviously, we’re all thinking about what the Kansas amendment vote could mean for voter enthusiasm going into the midterms. But it’s important to remember that if the amendment fails, it will make a huge difference for abortion access in the Midwest.

Right now, two of the states bordering Kansas — Oklahoma and Missouri — have banned abortion, and Nebraska seems likely to do the same, at least at some point. The four abortion clinics in Kansas were already serving a large number of out-of-state patients before Dobbs, and that seems likely to increase as more states’ abortion bans go into place. I talked to a Kansas abortion provider who said that on the day of the Dobbs ruling, she was getting calls from patients in Mississippi and Louisiana asking if she could fit them in because their appointments had been canceled. So however the vote on the amendment turns out, it will have big practical implications for pregnant people in Kansas and beyond.

With about 52 percent of the vote counted in the GOP primary for Missouri’s 4th District, we’re in a holding pattern: Former TV anchor Mark Alford is running strong with 42 percent, while state Sen. Rick Brattin and farmer Kalena Bruce train with 22 and 12 percent, respectively.

Latest count in Missouri’s 4th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Missouri’s 4th Congressional District, as of 9:43 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Mark Alford	24,280	42.1
Rick Brattin	12,616	21.9
Kalena Bruce	6,914	12.0
Taylor Burks	4,616	8.0
William “Bill” Irwin	4,484	7.8
Kyle Stonner LaBrue	2,533	4.4
Jim “Soupy” Campbell	2,253	3.9

In the GOP primary for Michigan’s 3rd District, Meijer now trails by only 6 points against Trump-endorsed Gibbs, with 24 percent of the expected vote in. Meijer’s position improved after some votes from Kent County (home to Grand Rapids) came in that had him winning 57 percent. Considering Kent will provide maybe 70 percent or so of the primary vote, if Meijer can keep putting up solid numbers there, the incumbent could survive after voting for Trump’s impeachment.

Up to 17 percent reporting now in Missouri’s GOP primary for Senate, and Schmitt still has a strong lead over Hartzler, with Greitens way back with less than 20 percent of the vote. Rep. Billy Long, who despite being an incumbent congressman is mustering just 4 percent of the vote, has already conceded to Schmitt, though the race has not yet been called.

Latest count in Missouri’s GOP primary for Senate

Results of Missouri’s Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, as of 9:43 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Eric Schmitt	87,529	42.7%
Vicky Hartzler	52,324	25.5
Eric Greitens	39,070	19.1
Billy Long	7,108	3.5
Mark McCloskey	7,002	3.4
Dave Schatz	2,733	1.3
Patrick A. Lewis	2,112	1.0
Curtis D. Vaughn	1,112	0.5
Eric McElroy	874	0.4
Robert Allen	700	0.3
Dave Sims	662	0.3
Bernie Mowinski	578	0.3
C.W. Gardner	570	0.3
Deshon Porter	518	0.3
Darrell Leon McClanahan III	412	0.2
Robert Olson	360	0.2
Rickey Joiner	345	0.2
Kevin C. Schepers	257	0.1
Dennis Lee Chilton	255	0.1
Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr.	219	0.1
Hartford Tunnell	214	0.1

Eric Burlison continues to pull ahead in Missouri’s 7th District, which is a bit of a surprise. Jay Wasson was the favorite to win here, leading the polls and pulling the fattest bank account. Burlison has framed Wasson as the out of touch career politician favored by D.C. elitists. Wasson has been a pretty solidly conservative politician his entire career, but this framing might have worked in Burlison’s favor.

Latest count in Missouri’s 7th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Missouri’s 7th Congressional District, as of 9:37 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Eric Burlison	3,068	37.3
Jay Wasson	1,948	23.7
Alex Bryant	1,629	19.8
Mike Moon	607	7.4
Sam Alexander	473	5.8
Audrey Richards	234	2.8
Paul Walker	166	2.0
Camille Lombardi-Olive	99	1.2

For races that have been called so far, nine candidates who fully denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election have won their primary tonight, and one candidate who questioned the results has won. These include Dixon, who Nathaniel just mentioned has clinched the Republican nomination for Governor in Michigan tonight. Dixon was one of multiple candidates who, when asked by competitor Ralph Rebandt at a debate whether they believed there was “widespread election fraud,” raised her hand in agreement.

How election deniers are doing tonight

Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington, as of 9:41 p.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE	OFFICE	Position on 2020 election	% REPORTING	VOTE SHARE	STATUS
Joan Farr	KS Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	35%	19.9%	✗ Lost
Derek Schmidt	KS Gov.	❓Raised doubts	33	77.7	✓ Won
Mike Brown	KS SoS	🚫 Denied legitimacy	32	41.1	Trailing
Kris Kobach	KS AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	34	36.5	Trailing
John A. McCaughrean	KS-03	❓Raised doubts	67	23.3	Trailing
Ron Estes*	KS-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	2	100.0	✓ Won
Tudor M. Dixon	MI Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	23	41.6	✓ Won
Kevin Rinke	MI Gov.	❓Raised doubts	23	20.0	✗ Lost
Garrett Soldano	MI Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	23	18.7	✗ Lost
Ryan D. Kelley	MI Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	23	15.4	✗ Lost
Ralph Rebandt	MI Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	23	3.9	✗ Lost
Thomas J. Norton	MI-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	12	36.6	Trailing
John Gibbs	MI-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	24	53.2	Leading
Tim Walberg*	MI-05	🚫 Denied legitimacy	23	62.4	Leading
Sherry O’Donnell	MI-05	🚫 Denied legitimacy	23	37.5	Trailing
Hima Kolanagireddy	MI-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	23	51.3	Leading
Tom Barrett	MI-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	14	100.0	✓ Won
Matthew Seely	MI-08	🚫 Denied legitimacy	11	23.5	Trailing
Lisa McClain*	MI-09	🚫 Denied legitimacy	22	79.1	Leading
Michelle R.E. Donovan	MI-09	🚫 Denied legitimacy	22	20.9	Trailing
John James	MI-10	❓Raised doubts	5	91.3	Leading
Tony Marcinkewciz	MI-10	🚫 Denied legitimacy	5	8.7	Trailing
James Hooper	MI-12	❓Raised doubts	4	31.6	Trailing
Eric Schmitt	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	22	42.7	Leading
Vicky Hartzler	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	22	25.5	Trailing
Eric Greitens	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	22	19.2	Trailing
Billy Long	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	22	3.5	Trailing
Mark McCloskey	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	22	3.4	Trailing
Bernie Mowinski	MO Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	22	0.3	Trailing
Hartford Tunnell	MO Sen.	❓Raised doubts	22	0.1	Trailing
Wesley Smith	MO-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	9	7.8	✗ Lost
Paul Berry III	MO-02	❓Raised doubts	9	7.7	✗ Lost
Blaine Luetkemeyer*	MO-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	30	69.3	✓ Won
Brandon Wilkinson	MO-03	❓Raised doubts	30	15.3	✗ Lost
Mark Alford	MO-04	❓Raised doubts	35	40.3	Leading
Jacob Turk	MO-05	🚫 Denied legitimacy	11	51.7	Leading
Sam Graves*	MO-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	36	72.0	✓ Won
Dakota Shultz	MO-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	36	7.1	✗ Lost
John Dady	MO-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	36	2.7	✗ Lost
Eric Burlison	MO-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	7	37.3	Leading
Jay Wasson	MO-07	❓Raised doubts	7	23.7	Trailing
Mike Moon	MO-07	❓Raised doubts	7	7.4	Trailing
Sam Alexander	MO-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	7	5.8	Trailing
Paul Walker	MO-07	❓Raised doubts	7	2.0	Trailing
Camille Lombardi-Olive	MO-07	❓Raised doubts	7	1.2	Trailing
Jason Smith*	MO-08	🚫 Denied legitimacy	21	85.0	✓ Won
Mark Brnovich	AZ Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Jim Lamon	AZ Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Blake Masters	AZ Sen.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Kari Lake	AZ Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Scott Neely	AZ Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Matt Salmon	AZ Gov.	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Paola “Z.” Tulliani-Zen	AZ Gov.	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Shawnna Bolick	AZ SoS	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Mark Finchem	AZ SoS	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Rodney Glassman	AZ AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Dawn Grove	AZ AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Abraham “Abe” Hamadeh	AZ AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Tiffany Shedd	AZ AG	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Josh Barnett	AZ-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Elijah Norton	AZ-01	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
David Schweikert*	AZ-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Walter “Walt” Blackman	AZ-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Eli Crane	AZ-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Mark DeLuzio	AZ-02	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
John Moore	AZ-02	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Ron Watkins	AZ-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Jeff Zink	AZ-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Kelly Cooper	AZ-04	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Jerone Davison	AZ-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Dave Giles	AZ-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Andy Biggs*	AZ-05	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Juan Ciscomani	AZ-06	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Brandon Martin	AZ-06	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Kathleen Winn	AZ-06	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Luis Pozzolo	AZ-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Debbie Lesko*	AZ-08	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Paul Gosar*	AZ-09	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Randy Kutz	AZ-09	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Tracey Mann*	KS-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	✓ Won
Jake LaTurner*	KS-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	✓ Won
Jack Bergman	MI-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	✓ Won
Leon Lawson	WA Sen.	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Tamborine Borrelli	WA SoS	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Matthew Heines	WA-01	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Cody Hart	WA-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Carrie R. Kennedy	WA-02	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Vicki Kraft	WA-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Heidi St. John	WA-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Joe Kent	WA-03	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Corey Gibson	WA-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Loren Culp	WA-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Brad Klippert	WA-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Benancio “Benny” Garcia III	WA-04	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Jerrod Sessler	WA-04	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Paul Glumaz	WA-07	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Jesse Jensen	WA-08	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—
Scott Stephenson	WA-08	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Doug Basler	WA-09	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Keith R. Swank	WA-10	🚫 Denied legitimacy	0	0.0	—
Dan Earnest Gordon	WA-10	❓Raised doubts	0	0.0	—

New York’s congressional primaries aren’t until Aug. 23, but I interrupt tonight’s primary coverage to share a truly wild moment from a New York debate where Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney just gave voice to how many Democrats feel about Biden running again in 2024. Maloney said she doesn’t believe Biden will run for reelection. Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler, who’s facing Maloney in this heated, incumbent-vs-incumbent primary said it was “too early to say.”

One could argue that with an approval rating that is in high 30s, which is a record low, it makes sense that Democrats are distancing themselves for Biden, but this level of distancing seems suggest to me that something else might be happening here.

As the “No” side continues to hold its lead in the results, I think it’s worth noting that Kansas has trended slightly blue relative to the rest of the county. It has a Democratic governor and a Democratic U.S. representative in its 3rd district (a suburban seat). It’s not going to be a swing state any time soon, but Kansas has a fairly well-educated population, a group Democrats have done well with in recent years.

As election day votes begin getting counted in Kansas, the Value Them Both amendment is not putting up the kind of margins it needs in order to counteract its terrible performance among advance voters.

Support for Israel is an issue, too, where Democrats are more split than they have been historically, and clearly AIPAC is trying to counteract that. But what’s I find fascinating is that AIPAC is investing in races where the candidates’ stances on Israel aren’t that important to the primary itself. Jacob and Geoffrey noted this earlier, but I’m thinking of the Democratic primary in Maryland’s 4th District, in particular.

Right, Amelia. AIPAC’s spending, mainly through its United Democracy Project, has tried to thwart candidates it sees as critical of Israel. In some ways, this isn’t surprising, but we’ve never seen the group wade into party primaries in such an aggressive fashion. And to be clear, UDP isn’t running ads that have anything to do with Israel. Instead, the UDP is doing things like criticizing former Rep. Donna Edwards over her past constituent services in her failed comeback attempt in Maryland back in July.

It is pretty strange to see a pro-Israel lobbying group spend so aggressively against a Jewish Democrat, which is what’s happening in Michigan’s 11th. “I have mezuzas on the doors in my office. I’m one of two former synagogue presidents in the Congress,” Andy Levin said recently. But obviously, AIPAC cares more about Levin’s stance on Israel than his religious affiliation. Levin is far from the most vocal critic of Israel in the Democratic Party right now, but he’s less supportive than groups like AIPAC would like – he’s one of the main sponsors of a bill that refers to the Palestinian territories as “occupied” and has the support of a more left-wing (but still pro-Israel) group.

We haven’t gotten a ton of results or clarity in the three states where polls are currently closed, but one race where we do have a fair amount of results is Michigan’s 11th, and that race, as Jacob noted earlier, had a lot of outside spending from AIPAC.

AIPAC only began operating in earnest this election cycle, but it has already become one of the most influential players — and biggest spenders — in Democratic congressional primaries. So what’s going on? Why is AIPAC getting so involved in Democratic races?

It does seem like the Kansas amendment could very well be on its way to failing. Johnson County, which produced about a quarter of the state’s vote in 2020 and went for Biden by 8 points, hasn’t reported yet. Presumably, its margin for the “No” side will be far larger given the swing from the presidential race that we’ve seen.

I’m watching Michigan’s 8th district tonight. It’ll be a highly competitive race this fall, as Republicans try to unseat Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in a district that leans Republican by 1 point, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean. With 7 percent of the vote in, the expected favorite in the GOP primary, Paul Junge, is leading by 30 points. He is a former TV news anchor and Trump administration official and was named to the NRCC’s “Young Guns” list.

ABC News is projecting that Tudor Dixon has won the GOP nomination for Michigan governor. Although only 20 percent of the expected vote is reporting, her lead is quite wide, as you can see. This sets up a competitive race in the fall between Dixon and Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, although according to our forecast, Whitmer is the heavy favorite.

Latest count in Michigan’s GOP primary for governor

Results of Michigan’s Republican primary for governor, as of 9:30 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Tudor M. Dixon	93,064	42.0
Kevin Rinke	43,759	19.7
Garrett Soldano	41,681	18.8
Ryan D. Kelley	33,842	15.3
Ralph Rebandt	8,423	3.8
Write-ins	854	0.4

According to the Kansas secretary of state, three counties are fully reporting now, but they’re all small rural counties: Chase, Kiowa, and Meade. Meade is the biggest of those and, for what it’s worth, “Yes” is winning there 69 percent to 31 percent. Trump won here 84 percent to 14 percent in 2020, so the amendment is doing 15 points worse. Trump won Kansas with 56 percent, so if this performance is replicated statewide, the amendment would fail.

In Missouri’s 4th District, former TV anchor Mark Alford is out front of the GOP primary with about 34 percent of the vote, though just 24 percent of the expected vote is in.

Latest count in Missouri’s 4th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Missouri’s 4th Congressional District, as of 9:28 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Mark Alford	9,015	33.6
Rick Brattin	4,977	18.5
Kalena Bruce	4,603	17.1
Taylor Burks	2,806	10.5
William “Bill” Irwin	2,464	9.2
Kyle Stonner LaBrue	1,700	6.3
Jim “Soupy” Campbell	1,283	4.8

In Missouri’s 7th District, Eric Burlison is still leading, with 35.6 percent of the vote. Former state Sen. Jay Wasson is still in second. But we’re also starting to see more of a showing from pastor Alex Bryant and state Sen. Mike Moon.

Fun fact about Bryant: His name is spelled wrong on the ballot in one county. There was a misprint that put him as “Byrant,” but he’s taken it in stride: “Hey, the name may be misspelled on the ballot, but don’t let it be misspelled in your heart,” is the direct quote.

Moon, meanwhile, is probably best known for making his name on his anti-abortion positions. He played a big roll in derailing the confirmation process of the state’s health director, because that candidate wasn’t anti-abortion enough … and was pro-vaccine. Also, he once decapitated and disembowled a chicken in a video he released on social media to point out what he sees as the brutality of abortion.

Latest count in Missouri’s 7th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Missouri’s 7th Congressional District, as of 9:17 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Eric Burlison	1,316	35.6
Jay Wasson	841	22.8
Alex Bryant	701	19.0
Mike Moon	329	8.9
Sam Alexander	230	6.2
Audrey Richards	137	3.7
Paul Walker	82	2.2
Camille Lombardi-Olive	59	1.6

It’s still very early, but we’ve got 16 percent of the expected vote in from the GOP primary for Michigan’s 3rd District, and the incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer looks to be in some trouble after voting to impeach Trump. He trails John Gibbs, who has Trump’s endorsement, 58 percent to 42 percent. Now, all of the vote in so far is from Ottawa County along Lake Michigan, and Meijer will have to hope his home base in Grand Rapids, which will provide the vast majority of votes, will be stronger for him.

We have some results on the Kansas ballot initiative! With 18 percent of the expected vote reporting, 66 percent of Kansans are on the “no” side, while only 34 percent are on the “yes” side. Here’s a map of how the vote is shaking out by county. As you can see, we’re still missing results from some key areas — we still don’t have votes from much of the rural (redder) part of the state, which is likelier to support the amendment. And we’re also missing results from the Wichita and Kansas City suburbs, which are likely to tilt against the amendment. But even though it’s early and things could change, the amendment’s opponents are leading by a lot.

Monica, Ciscomani is the front-runner, but it’s been interesting to see the cavalry come in for him in the closing weeks of the race. Congressional Leadership Fund, the Super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, spent $1 million boosting Ciscomani in the run-up to the primary, indicating his position might not be as secure as it initially appeared.

While we wait for Arizona results, Nathaniel and Geoffrey have written about the Republican race in Arizona’s 6th district. Juan Ciscomani, a former advisor to Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, is arguably the front-runner. He did not participate in a debate hosted by Arizona PBS and The Arizona Republic, where the four other candidates discussed immigration — the district is on the border with Mexico — inflation, and the economy.

We’re at 10 percent of the expected vote reporting in the GOP primary for Missouri Senate, and … Eric is winning! Schmitt, that is. In fact, his lead is even wider than suggested by recent polls.

Latest count in Missouri’s GOP primary for Senate

Results of Missouri’s Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, as of 9:21 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Votes	Vote %
Eric Schmitt	36,569	42.7%
Vicky Hartzler	20,973	24.5
Eric Greitens	16,442	19.2
Billy Long	2,966	3.5
Mark McCloskey	2,892	3.4
Dave Schatz	1,314	1.5
Patrick A. Lewis	1,028	1.2
Curtis D. Vaughn	541	0.6
Eric McElroy	399	0.5
Robert Allen	365	0.4
Dave Sims	295	0.3
Bernie Mowinski	286	0.3
C.W. Gardner	278	0.3
Deshon Porter	262	0.3
Darrell Leon McClanahan III	207	0.2
Robert Olson	176	0.2
Rickey Joiner	163	0.2
Kevin C. Schepers	138	0.2
Dennis Lee Chilton	106	0.1
Hartford Tunnell	95	0.1
Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr.	93	0.1

Tuesday’s nightcap out West features four congressional primaries of interest, two of which feature House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. (Remember, though, that Washington is one of the two states that uses a top-two primary, in which all candidates run on the same ballot, regardless of party, and the two top vote-getters advance to the general election.)

Senate: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is seeking her sixth term, and while she is heavily favored to win reelection in November, how the two-party vote breaks down tonight will be important: Back in 2010, Republican candidates actually won a slightly larger share than the Democrats did, a harbinger for Murray’s 5-percentage-point win in the general that year, her closest margin since she first won this seat in 1992. Murray looks likely to face Republican Tiffany Smiley, a former nurse who became a veterans advocate after her husband was blinded while serving in the Iraq War.

3rd District: Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 attack, so she now faces two Trump stalwarts running to her right — former Army Green Beret Joe Kent and evangelical Christian author Heidi St. John — as well as one notable Democrat, auto shop owner Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Kent has Trump’s endorsement, so he’s probably Herrera Beutler’s biggest threat. Her allies have spent more than $2 million attacking Kent or supporting her. However, a mysterious super PAC may be looking to help Herrera Beutler, as it has spent almost $1.5 million mostly in support of St. John, which has led Kent to claim the group is boosting St. John to split the GOP base and make it harder to defeat the incumbent.

4th District: Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse, who also backed Trump’s impeachment, also faces a series of Trump-inspired primary challengers. But he may have a better shot than Herrera Beutler to advance to November, as his district, the state’s reddest seat, has sometimes sent two Republicans to the general election. Newhouse does have to contend with Loren Culp, the GOP’s failed 2020 gubernatorial candidate who has Trump’s endorsement, but Culp and other notable Republicans — former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, marketing professional Corey Gibson and state Rep. Brad Klippert — have all struggled to fundraise. It’s also possible that businessman Doug White, the lone Democrat running, might win most Democratic voters and grab one of the general election spots because the heavily Republican vote is divided among multiple GOP contenders.

8th District: Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier is defending this swing seat, whose primary is all about which of three Republicans running will make it to November with her. She’ll meet either former Army Ranger Jesse Jensen (whom Schrier beat in 2020 by about 4 points); businessman Matt Larkin, who lost as the GOP’s candidate in the 2020 attorney general’s race; or King County Council member Reagan Dunn, whose mother represented this area in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The race has gotten nasty, too, as an outside group backing Jensen has attacked Dunn, claiming he voted to cut law enforcement funding and have sent out mailers portraying Dunn as an abusive alcoholic. (Dunn has been open about past drinking struggles.)

Washington’s bipartisan redistricting commission drew a new congressional map for the Evergreen State that’s quite similar to the old one — six Democratic-leaning seats, three Republican-leaning seats and one highly competitive seat — but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t drama surrounding its passage.

With just minutes remaining until the commission’s deadline to approve a map, commissioners took a series of rushed votes on a map that had not been negotiated in public, appearing to violate the state’s open-meetings laws. However, the next day, the commission announced that it had actually missed the deadline to properly pass a map; as a result, the redistricting process fell to the Washington Supreme Court. The following month, though, the court ruled that the commission had “substantially complied” with its mandate and accepted the map that the commission had drawn. The whole episode was a reminder that some redistricting commissions work better than others.

I’m inclined to think it’s more like gay marriage, Jacob — because it’s a similarly charged social issue and because those gay marriage bans were really about firing up the Republican base after a big setback for the party (gay and lesbian couples winning the right to marry in Massachusetts). I think this is a similar situation, in that voting for abortion rights could motivate Democrats who might not be excited to vote otherwise.

Amelia, one interesting question to me is whether abortion on the ballot is a boost for Democratic candidates, like gay marriage bans were for Republicans in 2004, or if it becomes like Medicaid expansion or marijuana legalization in the 2010s, where red states may go for it but won’t be more likely to back Democratic candidates, either.

The Michigan Democratic governor’s primary wasn’t in doubt, and ABC News has projected that Gretchen Whitmer will win. The question now is, who will she face in the Republican primary. Dixon’s chances still look at this strong, although we only have 12 percent of the vote reported at this point.

We’re seeing results for a handful of Trump endorsees roll in. ABC News projects that incumbent Jerry Moran will win the’ U.S. Senate Republican primary Kansas and that Derek Schmidt will win the state’s Republican gubernatorial primary.

How Trump’s endorsees are doing tonight

Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump, and their results in Republican primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington, as of 9:11 p.m. Eastern

Candidate	Office	% Reporting	Vote Share	Status
Jerry Moran*	KS Sen.	16%	78.9%	✓ Won
Derek Schmidt	KS Gov.	15	76.3	✓ Won
Tudor M. Dixon	MI Gov.	15	42.0	Leading
John Moolenaar*	MI-02	4	61.3	Leading
John Gibbs	MI-03	5	63.0	Leading
Bill Huizenga*	MI-04	4	100.0	✓ Won
Tim Walberg*	MI-05	14	62.7	Leading
Lisa McClain*	MI-09	14	79.3	Leading
John James	MI-10	5	91.3	Leading
Eric Schmitt†	MO Sen.	6	40.1	Leading
Eric Greitens†	MO Sen.	6	17.5	Trailing
Blaine Luetkemeyer*	MO-03	2	73.8	Leading
Sam Graves*	MO-06	11	65.1	✓ Won
Jason Smith*	MO-08	3	81.5	Leading
Blake Masters	AZ Sen.	0	0.0	—
Kari Lake	AZ Gov.	0	0.0	—
Eli Crane	AZ-02	0	0.0	—
Debbie Lesko*	AZ-08	0	0.0	—
Paul Gosar*	AZ-09	0	0.0	—
Tracey Mann*	KS-01	0	0.0	✓ Won
Joe Kent	WA-03	0	0.0	—
Loren Culp	WA-04	0	0.0	—

The other thing is the Dobbs ruling is giving Democrats more opportunities to literally put abortion rights on the ballot — in Michigan, in California, in Vermont. That could give people a reason to turn out even if they’re not enthused about the politicians they have to choose from.

That endorsement will be delivered orally.

In the primary, Trump endorsed the Erics. For the general, he may well endorse the Schmi(d/t)ts.

At least they’re not both named Eric, Jacob!

And remember, folks, Derek Schmidt and Eric Schmitt are in fact two different people, though they’re both attorneys general from neighboring states.

The anti-abortion movement has been reacting to those stories, as well. Amelia, you’ve talked to me a lot recently about the way new bills are reacting to these stories about maternal medical risks.

In particular, I think we’ll see unexpected impacts of Dobbs at the state level — in legislatures and governor races.

Yes, I agree with Amelia. Dobbs was a historic decision and voters already seem to be reacting to it, and some of the bans going into effect in states are very unpopular. Add to that a drumbeat of stories about girls and women whose lives have been at risk because of abortion bans in their states. The issue has been given more and broader attention, and there’s some sense that people are reacting.

I think, largely, Drucker has a point. We love to overanalyze fractional shifts ahead of an election. It’s part of the fun of politics. But I think we’d be a bit forgiven this year considering so much conventional wisdom about elections was thrown out the window over the last two years, and this year the Dobbs ruling is genuinely having an impact. It’s firing voters up over an issue that is a lot more motivating than many others. Do I think that means the Democrats are going to hold onto the House? No. But it might mean the “WIPEOUT” prediction doesn’t come true either.

I think there may be some truth to that pattern, Sarah, as far as the media narrative goes, but a couple more points are worth considering too. You can have a pretty bad midterms and not lose the Senate. That happened for Republicans in 2018 and for Democrats in 2010. So the idea that the environment is potentially good enough for Democrats that they can hold the Senate is not a wild proposition. Also, the midterm curse has been avoided in certain circumstances when there is a major news event — namely Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial and 9/11.

Now it’s clearly debatable if Dobbs rises to that level. (We will find out soon enough.) But nothing that’s happening right now is out of line with historical precedent.

In response to that tweet, Sarah, I’d say “Sure … except one of the important and widely recognized Supreme Court rulings in modern history wasn’t overturned four months before those elections.” Not to be flip! I don’t think we should overstate how much things can realistically look up for Democrats. But I also think the Dobbs ruling could scramble the conventional wisdom, at least to a certain extent. It’s giving Democrats a reason to be angry and engage with politics at a moment when people are pretty unhappy about everything else.

Yeah, Sarah, I think Drucker is right. There are usually ups and downs for the president’s party leading up to the actual midterm election — but then they almost always do poorly in the end. While I don’t have any trouble believing Democrats are relatively energized right now due to the Dobbs decision, I think the burden is on them to show they can sustain that energy for three more months. History is not on their side.