FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

With Andy Levin’s loss, we’re now up to nine incumbent representatives who have lost primaries this year: David McKinley, Madison Cawthorn, Kurt Schrader, Carolyn Bourdeaux, Tom Rice, Steven Palazzo, Marie Newman, Rodney Davis and Levin. That’s the most since 2012, which was also the first election after a redistricting cycle. In fact, the number of incumbents losing renomination tends to spike in those years.

Incumbents rarely lose their primaries

The number of U.S. House members who lost renomination, as a share of those seeking reelection, in elections since 1946

Year Seeking Reelection Who Lost Renomination Loss Rate
1946 398 18 4.5%
1948 400 15 3.8
1950 400 6 1.5
1952 389 9 2.3
1954 407 6 1.5
1956 411 6 1.5
1958 396 3 0.8
1960 405 5 1.2
1962 402 12 3.0
1964 397 8 2.0
1966 411 8 1.9
1968 409 4 1.0
1970 401 10 2.5
1972 393 11 2.8
1974 391 8 2.0
1976 384 3 0.8
1978 382 5 1.3
1980 398 6 1.5
1982 393 10 2.5
1984 411 3 0.7
1986 394 3 0.8
1988 409 1 0.2
1990 406 1 0.2
1992 368 19 5.2
1994 387 4 1.0
1996 384 2 0.5
1998 402 1 0.2
2000 403 3 0.7
2002 398 8 2.0
2004 404 2 0.5
2006 403 2 0.5
2008 400 4 1.0
2010 397 4 1.0
2012 391 13 3.3
2014 392 5 1.3
2016 393 5 1.3
2018 375 4 1.1
2020 380 8 2.1

Bolded rows are the first election cycle after redistricting. Figures from the 2020 cycle only include primaries that have concluded by Sept. 1.

Source: Sabato’s Crystal Ball


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