FiveThirtyEight
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Sarah, the question of where the anti-abortion movement goes from here is a big one right now — not just in Kansas, but also in states like Indiana and West Virginia, which are debating the first abortion bans since the Dobbs ruling.

In those states, there’s been quite a lot of debate over whether rape and incest exceptions should be included in the legislation. A lot of anti-abortion advocates don’t think those exceptions should be there, but it’s very politically dicey to pass bans with basically no exceptions because they’re extremely unpopular. So what we’re seeing, in part, is an attempt to weigh principles against politics. Full bans on abortion are already not especially popular, even with exceptions — and it will be very easy for Democrats to argue that Republicans are far too extreme if we see more of these laws pass in the lead-up to the midterms. That’s very much not the incrementalist strategy we saw in the past, where anti-abortion groups focused on legislation that was popular and less far-reaching.


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