FiveThirtyEight
Galen Druke

Sarah, I think that’s an important question in all of this. This constitutional amendment was only about one thing: abortion. Democrats’ electoral performance is about a lot of things: inflation, the economy generally, immigration, crime and also abortion. When voters in not just Kansas, but also in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, go to the polls this fall, abortion won’t be a line item on the ballot. There will be some voters for whom the issue beats out everything — from recent polling it mostly looks like college-educated voters. But for many, it doesn’t.


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