FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

It’s interesting, Nathaniel. I don’t dispute any of the points you’ve cited, but to take what happened in Kansas tonight a step further: Is it enough for someone like Kelly to maintain the governorship in Kansas? The FiveThirtyEight forecast — which will update that Schmidt won the primary tomorrow — currently rates this as a toss-up, so it’s definitely possible she ekes out victory. But it’s also possible she doesn’t. And that’s significant, because in some ways, Kelly remaining in the governor’s mansion is just as important as the amendment vote to abortion rights in Kansas, as she’s able to veto legislation from the otherwise GOP-controlled state legislature. But I’m not sure voters will view the race in the same way.


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