FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

I’m ready to get on board the train that Democrats have been energized by the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Since the decision, Democrats have picked up a couple points on generic ballot polling, had a stronger-than-expected overperformance in a special election for Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District and now it looks like they’ve defeated an anti-abortion ballot measure in Kansas. The real question, though, is whether this energy lasts the three months until the actual midterms. Based on the way other issues (e.g., gun control, foreign policy) have faded from the news cycle, my guess is that it won’t and the normal midterm dynamics will win out, but I’m curious what others think.


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