FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

I think part of it, Alex, is that there’s that the progressive wing of the party right now has a level of insurgent energy to power a successful primary challenger, while the moderates just don’t have it. But that’s a pretty vibes-heavy answer. I think what happened in 2020 is also illustrative: Ocasio-Cortez’s primary challenger spent $3.5 million and lost by 56 points, and Omar’s primary challenger spent $4.7 million and lost by 20 points. That’s not encouraging data for future would-be challengers.


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