FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

Trends continue to favor Gibbs in Michigan’s 3rd District GOP primary. He leads by 2.7 points now, and with 92 percent of the expected vote reporting, this may be all she wrote for Meijer. Gibbs did well in the election day vote in Kent County (Grand Rapids), which helped him narrow Meijer’s early lead there to almost a 50-50 draw. Meanwhile, Gibbs has a small leads in the other two counties that make up around 25 to 30 percent of the district’s vote.

Jacob Rubashkin

The AP (but not yet ABC) has called the top-two primary in Washington State for incumbent Democrat Patty Murray, and her top GOP challenger, triage nurse Tiffany Smiley. The two will face off in a head-to-head matchup this fall, and Republicans hope the red wave gets high enough to reach all the way to the Evergreen State.

Nathaniel Rakich

Just thinking out loud here. We’re about to get some good indicators of the national mood in a series of upcoming special elections: Minnesota’s 1st District next Tuesday; Alaska’s at-large House seat on Aug. 16; New York’s 19th and 23rd districts on Aug. 23. If Democrats continue to overperform in those seats, it will show that the party’s voters really are energized, at least as we stand now.


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