FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

The AP (but not yet ABC) has called the top-two primary in Washington State for incumbent Democrat Patty Murray, and her top GOP challenger, triage nurse Tiffany Smiley. The two will face off in a head-to-head matchup this fall, and Republicans hope the red wave gets high enough to reach all the way to the Evergreen State.

Nathaniel Rakich

Just thinking out loud here. We’re about to get some good indicators of the national mood in a series of upcoming special elections: Minnesota’s 1st District next Tuesday; Alaska’s at-large House seat on Aug. 16; New York’s 19th and 23rd districts on Aug. 23. If Democrats continue to overperform in those seats, it will show that the party’s voters really are energized, at least as we stand now.

Geoffrey Skelley

Arizona’s GOP Senate primary remains pretty close, as Masters leads Lamon by about 4 points with 57 percent of the expected vote reporting. Brnovich is hanging out at 20 percent, so it looks like it’s a Masters-Lamon race. Interestingly, Lamon is doing a bit better in the counties that sit along the U.S.-Mexico border, but Maricopa County (Phoenix) is the mother lode of votes in Arizona (roughly 60 percent of the GOP primary vote), and Masters is up about 6 points there.


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