FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

In Arizona’s 1st District, incumbent GOP Rep. David Schweikert leads insurance company founder Elijah Norton 44 percent to 34 percent, with 77 percent of the expected vote already reporting. Norton went after Schweikert for his various ethics scandals, including a fine by the FEC for campaign violations and ethics violations handed down by the House Ethics Committee. Norton also had a big fundraising advantage thanks to his personal wealth. But Schweikert and his allies criticized Norton for running an insurance company that allegedly defrauded customers. They even sent out mailers to voters that implied Norton was gay, which prompted a lawsuit by another man pictured in the mailer.

Kaleigh Rogers

Along with Finchem, multiple candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election are currently leading their races in Arizona. This includes Masters, currently leading in the GOP race for senate. Masters has said, “I think Trump won in 2020,” and that election officials and the media “conspired to manipulate the 2020 election.” Masters has 34 percent of the vote.

How election deniers are doing tonight

Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington, as of 11:24 p.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Position on 2020 election % REPORTING VOTE SHARE STATUS
Blake Masters AZ Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 57% 34.4% Leading
Jim Lamon AZ Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 57 30.6 Trailing
Mark Brnovich AZ Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 57 20.2 Trailing
Kari Lake AZ Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 40.5 Trailing
Matt Salmon AZ Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 4.5 Trailing
Scott Neely AZ Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 59 3.5 Trailing
Paola “Z.” Tulliani-Zen AZ Gov. ❓Raised doubts 59 2.4 Trailing
Mark Finchem AZ SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 53 35.6 Leading
Shawnna Bolick AZ SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 53 20.2 Trailing
Abraham “Abe” Hamadeh AZ AG 🚫 Denied legitimacy 54 28.8 Leading
Rodney Glassman AZ AG 🚫 Denied legitimacy 54 24.3 Trailing
Dawn Grove AZ AG 🚫 Denied legitimacy 54 14.0 Trailing
Tiffany Shedd AZ AG 🚫 Denied legitimacy 54 5.0 Trailing
David Schweikert* AZ-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 77 43.7 Leading
Elijah Norton AZ-01 ❓Raised doubts 77 34.0 Trailing
Josh Barnett AZ-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 77 22.4 Trailing
Eli Crane AZ-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 48 33.2 Leading
Walter “Walt” Blackman AZ-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 48 24.0 Trailing
Mark DeLuzio AZ-02 ❓Raised doubts 48 18.6 Trailing
John Moore AZ-02 ❓Raised doubts 48 6.8 Trailing
Ron Watkins AZ-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 48 3.1 Trailing
Jeff Zink AZ-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 36 100.0 ✓ Won
Kelly Cooper AZ-04 ❓Raised doubts 60 30.3 Leading
Dave Giles AZ-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 60 19.2 Trailing
Jerone Davison AZ-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 60 11.1 Trailing
Andy Biggs* AZ-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 45 100.0 ✓ Won
Juan Ciscomani AZ-06 ❓Raised doubts 51 47.9 Leading
Brandon Martin AZ-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 51 19.7 Trailing
Kathleen Winn AZ-06 ❓Raised doubts 51 17.5 Trailing
Luis Pozzolo AZ-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 33 66.4 Leading
Debbie Lesko* AZ-08 🚫 Denied legitimacy 64 100.0 ✓ Won
Paul Gosar* AZ-09 🚫 Denied legitimacy 58 63.4 ✓ Won
Randy Kutz AZ-09 ❓Raised doubts 58 13.8 ✗ Lost
Joan Farr KS Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 94 19.9 ✗ Lost
Derek Schmidt KS Gov. ❓Raised doubts 91 80.1 ✓ Won
Mike Brown KS SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 87 44.4 Trailing
Kris Kobach KS AG 🚫 Denied legitimacy 93 41.0 Leading
John A. McCaughrean KS-03 ❓Raised doubts 99 22.6 ✗ Lost
Ron Estes* KS-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 5 100.0 ✓ Won
Tudor M. Dixon MI Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 39.7 ✓ Won
Kevin Rinke MI Gov. ❓Raised doubts 52 21.2 ✗ Lost
Garrett Soldano MI Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 18.9 ✗ Lost
Ryan D. Kelley MI Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 15.7 ✗ Lost
Ralph Rebandt MI Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 4.1 ✗ Lost
Jack Bergman MI-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 12 100.0 ✓ Won
Thomas J. Norton MI-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 80 33.0 ✗ Lost
John Gibbs MI-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 63 49.7 Trailing
Tim Walberg* MI-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 63.8 ✓ Won
Sherry O’Donnell MI-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 36.0 ✗ Lost
Hima Kolanagireddy MI-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 33 49.7 Trailing
Tom Barrett MI-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 15 100.0 ✓ Won
Matthew Seely MI-08 🚫 Denied legitimacy 42 23.2 ✗ Lost
Lisa McClain* MI-09 🚫 Denied legitimacy 39 79.4 ✓ Won
Michelle R.E. Donovan MI-09 🚫 Denied legitimacy 39 20.5 ✗ Lost
John James MI-10 ❓Raised doubts 21 87.6 ✓ Won
Tony Marcinkewciz MI-10 🚫 Denied legitimacy 21 12.4 ✗ Lost
James Hooper MI-12 ❓Raised doubts 18 34.2 Trailing
Eric Schmitt MO Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 75 45.7 ✓ Won
Vicky Hartzler MO Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 75 22.1 ✗ Lost
Eric Greitens MO Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 75 19.0 ✗ Lost
Billy Long MO Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 75 4.8 ✗ Lost
Mark McCloskey MO Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 75 3.0 ✗ Lost
Bernie Mowinski MO Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 75 0.2 ✗ Lost
Hartford Tunnell MO Sen. ❓Raised doubts 75 0.1 ✗ Lost
Wesley Smith MO-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 81 9.0 ✗ Lost
Paul Berry III MO-02 ❓Raised doubts 81 8.5 ✗ Lost
Blaine Luetkemeyer* MO-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 86 69.7 ✓ Won
Brandon Wilkinson MO-03 ❓Raised doubts 86 16.5 ✗ Lost
Mark Alford MO-04 ❓Raised doubts 95 35.0 ✓ Won
Jacob Turk MO-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 71 51.8 Leading
Sam Graves* MO-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 82 75.4 ✓ Won
Dakota Shultz MO-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 82 6.3 ✗ Lost
John Dady MO-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 82 2.4 ✗ Lost
Eric Burlison MO-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 84 37.8 ✓ Won
Jay Wasson MO-07 ❓Raised doubts 84 22.7 ✗ Lost
Mike Moon MO-07 ❓Raised doubts 84 8.8 ✗ Lost
Sam Alexander MO-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 84 5.5 ✗ Lost
Paul Walker MO-07 ❓Raised doubts 84 3.0 ✗ Lost
Camille Lombardi-Olive MO-07 ❓Raised doubts 84 1.3 ✗ Lost
Jason Smith* MO-08 🚫 Denied legitimacy 80 82.0 ✓ Won
Leon Lawson WA Sen. ❓Raised doubts 50 3.2 Trailing
Tamborine Borrelli WA SoS 🚫 Denied legitimacy 45 3.8 Trailing
Matthew Heines WA-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 46 8.1 Trailing
Cody Hart WA-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 41 8.1 Trailing
Carrie R. Kennedy WA-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 41 3.0 Trailing
Joe Kent WA-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 20 24.8 Trailing
Heidi St. John WA-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 20 17.8 Trailing
Vicki Kraft WA-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 20 2.4 Trailing
Loren Culp WA-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 48 21.7 Trailing
Jerrod Sessler WA-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 48 10.9 Trailing
Brad Klippert WA-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 48 8.6 Trailing
Corey Gibson WA-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 48 3.6 Trailing
Benancio “Benny” Garcia III WA-04 ❓Raised doubts 48 1.5 Trailing
Paul Glumaz WA-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 49 5.4 Trailing
Jesse Jensen WA-08 ❓Raised doubts 53 12.6 Trailing
Scott Stephenson WA-08 🚫 Denied legitimacy 53 3.2 Trailing
Doug Basler WA-09 🚫 Denied legitimacy 45 20.7 Trailing
Keith R. Swank WA-10 🚫 Denied legitimacy 49 33.2 Trailing
Dan Earnest Gordon WA-10 ❓Raised doubts 49 6.5 Trailing
Tracey Mann* KS-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0 ✓ Won
Jake LaTurner* KS-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0 ✓ Won

*Incumbent.

Candidates marked as having “denied legitimacy” of the 2020 election either explicitly said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was illegitimate or, if an elected official, took legal measures to try to overturn the election. Candidates marked as “raised doubts” have questioned the fairness of the 2020 election or made references to “election integrity” but have not explicitly said the election or Trump’s loss was illegitimate.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News

Jacob Rubashkin

Nathaniel, it’ll be interesting if Wheeless goes down in Arizona’s 6th. She’s the preferred candidate of a lot of power players in Washington, D.C., and got a big boost from several Super PACs throughout the race, including the Ken Griffin-funded Strong Leaders Fund, which spent $440,000, and $800,000 from WFW Action Fund, another GOP establishment outfit with big-name backers.


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