FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

In the GOP primary for secretary of state in Arizona, Trump-endorsed state Rep. Mark Finchem has a decent lead with 35 percent of the vote, with advertising executive Beau Lane close behind with 28 percent of the vote. This is a notable competition since Finchem has been a big proponent of Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen, while Lane is the only candidate in the GOP primary for secretary of state who has stated without reservation that Biden legitimately won.

Nathaniel Rakich

Arizona’s Democratic primary for governor wasn’t nearly as competitive as the Republican primary, and in fact, we already have a winner: ABC News is projecting that Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (75 percent of the vote currently) has defeated Marco Lopez (21 percent).

Sarah Frostenson

The Arizona’s governor’s race, as Geoffrey and Nathaniel wrote in their preview of Arizona’s primary, has evolved into something of a proxy war between Trump and more traditional GOP forces led by Ducey and Pence. Lake, for instance, backs Trump’s false claims that the election was stolen, earning his endorsement in the process, while Robson has played it much more coyly, avoiding taking a public stance on the 2020 election. It’s not exactly a full-throated denial that Trump won, but it has earned support from the GOP establishment like Ducey and Pence. It’ll be interesting to see whether those differences in approach matter tonight in Arizona, as Robson has lagged Lake in the polls for awhile now but presumably would be a stronger general election choice.


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