One thing that has to greatly worry the anti-Trump forces is that Trump is now exceeding his poll averages. Since New York, Trump has performed at least 6.5 percentage points better in every state than the average of polls taken within 21 days of the election. Before that, Trump tended to hit his polling average and win no undecideds. Now, he’s winning his fair share of undecideds and then some. That’s very bad news for his opponents, given that Trump is already ahead in Indiana, a must-win state for Cruz.
| STATE | TRUMP OVERPERFORMANCE |
|---|---|
| Average Since New York | +9.0 |
| Connecticut | +7.0 |
| Delaware | +6.1 |
| Maryland | +10.1 |
| New York | +6.5 |
| Pennsylvania | +11.7 |
| Rhode Island | +12.3 |
| Average Before New York | +0.2 |
| Alabama | +4.1 |
| Arizona | +7.9 |
| Arkansas | -1.2 |
| Florida | +4.5 |
| Georgia | +1.7 |
| Idaho | -1.9 |
| Illinois | +3.8 |
| Iowa | -5.8 |
| Kansas | -7.3 |
| Kentucky | +0.9 |
| Louisiana | -1.3 |
| Massachusetts | +2.8 |
| Michigan | -1.6 |
| Mississippi | +6.2 |
| Missouri | +4.8 |
| Nevada | +3.9 |
| New Hampshire | +2.9 |
| North Carolina | -1.0 |
| Ohio | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | -4.7 |
| South Carolina | -1.3 |
| Tennessee | -5.1 |
| Texas | -0.9 |
| Utah | -2.0 |
| Vermont | -0.7 |
| Virginia | -4.0 |
| Wisconsin | +1.0 |