Trump May Be Helped By Low Turnout In Northeast
Although Republican turnout in the Northeast is higher than it’s been in most previous Republican primaries, it’s still quite low in an absolute sense — or compared to what it’s been in other parts of the country. In New York last week, for instance, only 6.4 percent of the voting-eligible population cast a ballot in the Republican primary, the lowest in any primary state to date, according to Michael McDonald’s website. And in Delaware tonight, which has counted almost all of its vote, GOP turnout is just 9.8 percent of the voting-eligible population. Trump seems to do well in areas where there are relatively few Republicans. It may also be that Kasich and Cruz supporters, who see their candidates way behind in the polls, aren’t motivated to turn out. Here’s the data for all primaries (not caucuses) so far:
| STATE | TURNOUT AS SHARE OF VOTING-ELIGIBLE POPULATION |
|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 27.8 |
| Wisconsin | 25.6 |
| Alabama | 23.9 |
| Ohio | 22.3 |
| Missouri | 20.7 |
| South Carolina | 20.3 |
| Idaho | 19.7 |
| Arkansas | 19.2 |
| Mississippi | 19.1 |
| Georgia | 18.8 |
| Michigan | 17.8 |
| Tennessee | 17.6 |
| Virginia | 17.0 |
| Oklahoma | 16.5 |
| Texas | 16.4 |
| Florida | 16.3 |
| North Carolina | 15.8 |
| Illinois | 15.3 |
| Massachusetts | 12.8 |
| Vermont | 12.5 |
| Arizona | 11.4 |
| Delaware | 9.8 |
| Louisiana | 8.9 |
| New York | 6.4 |