In his speech tonight, Sanders cited his strength in hypothetical general-election polls. He’s right: He does beat all three Republican candidates in head-to-head matchups, according to the polls. But there are plenty of reasons to think those polls overstate Sanders’s general-election prospects: They’re based on an unrealistic scenario in which votes are cast today, before any Republican attacks on Sanders. Similarly, there’s reason to doubt Kasich’s lead in head-to-head polls against Clinton: He hasn’t gotten much negative attention from Democrats. Clinton leads comfortably against Cruz and Trump; she has led in the last 48 polls HuffPost Pollster has collected pitting her against Trump.
