What Went Down In The April 26 Primary Elections

Earlier in the campaign, Trump had a tendency to perform poorly among late-deciding voters. It didn’t always cost him states because he had a lot of his vote locked in early on, but it led to him underperforming his polls fairly often. So what about tonight? According to exit polls, Trump won 37 percent of late-deciding voters in Maryland, 39 percent in Connecticut, and 41 percent in Pennsylvania. That’s good, although well below Trump’s statewide margins. In fact, Kasich narrowly led among late-deciders in Connecticut and Maryland. The thing is, though, that there weren’t very many late deciders. Only 21 percent of Republicans decided on their vote in the last week in Pennsylvania, 20 percent in Connecticut, and 27 percent in Maryland.

The prediction markets agree with the conventional wisdom that a Trump-Clinton general-election matchup is looking more likely after tonight. According to Election Betting Odds, which uses data from Betfair, Trump is up to a 75 percent chance to win the Republican nomination, from 70 percent a day ago. And Clinton continues her march toward clinching, up to a 95 percent chance from 94 percent yesterday. The Clinton-Trump matchup continues to look favorable for Democrats according to bettors, who give the party a 75 percent chance of holding on to the White House.

The Associated Press and ABC and NBC News are projecting that Clinton will win in Connecticut.