Updated |
What Went Down In The April 26 Primary Elections
Trump, who came to his victory party tonight straight off an appearance at the Time 100 Gala — he changed in between from tux to blue suit and tie — is really leaning into his against-the-establishment brand … on both sides of the aisle.
While boasting that has won millions and millions more votes than Kasich, Trump decided to offer his thoughts on the Democratic race as well.
“The Democrats have treated Bernie very badly and frankly I think he should run as an independent,” Trump said, as some in the crowd booed.
But his sympathetic advice to Sanders had an obvious self-serving point. If Sanders ran a third-party race, it would be highly advantageous for Trump, drawing votes away from Clinton.
If The Upshot’s projected margins are right, Clinton will win about 218 pledged delegates tonight compared to 166 for Sanders, very close to our projections heading into the evening, and leaving Sanders in a dire position. (Note: I’m assuming that Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote when in fact some are allocated proportionally by congressional district, but this rarely makes a difference of more than a couple of delegates.)
| DELEGATES BASED ON PROJECTED MARGIN | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| STATE | PROJECTED MARGIN | CLINTON | SANDERS |
| Pennsylvania | Clinton +9.6 | 104 | 85 |
| Maryland | Clinton +30.9 | 62 | 33 |
| Connecticut | Clinton +2.2 | 28 | 27 |
| Rhode Island | Sanders +12.2 | 11 | 13 |
| Delaware | Clinton +20.6 | 13 | 8 |
| Total | 218 | 166 | |
One thing that has to greatly worry the anti-Trump forces is that Trump is now exceeding his poll averages. Since New York, Trump has performed at least 6.5 percentage points better in every state than the average of polls taken within 21 days of the election. Before that, Trump tended to hit his polling average and win no undecideds. Now, he’s winning his fair share of undecideds and then some. That’s very bad news for his opponents, given that Trump is already ahead in Indiana, a must-win state for Cruz.
| STATE | TRUMP OVERPERFORMANCE |
|---|---|
| Average Since New York | +9.0 |
| Connecticut | +7.0 |
| Delaware | +6.1 |
| Maryland | +10.1 |
| New York | +6.5 |
| Pennsylvania | +11.7 |
| Rhode Island | +12.3 |
| Average Before New York | +0.2 |
| Alabama | +4.1 |
| Arizona | +7.9 |
| Arkansas | -1.2 |
| Florida | +4.5 |
| Georgia | +1.7 |
| Idaho | -1.9 |
| Illinois | +3.8 |
| Iowa | -5.8 |
| Kansas | -7.3 |
| Kentucky | +0.9 |
| Louisiana | -1.3 |
| Massachusetts | +2.8 |
| Michigan | -1.6 |
| Mississippi | +6.2 |
| Missouri | +4.8 |
| Nevada | +3.9 |
| New Hampshire | +2.9 |
| North Carolina | -1.0 |
| Ohio | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | -4.7 |
| South Carolina | -1.3 |
| Tennessee | -5.1 |
| Texas | -0.9 |
| Utah | -2.0 |
| Vermont | -0.7 |
| Virginia | -4.0 |
| Wisconsin | +1.0 |