Updated |
What Went Down In The April 26 Primary Elections
One thing that has to greatly worry the anti-Trump forces is that Trump is now exceeding his poll averages. Since New York, Trump has performed at least 6.5 percentage points better in every state than the average of polls taken within 21 days of the election. Before that, Trump tended to hit his polling average and win no undecideds. Now, he’s winning his fair share of undecideds and then some. That’s very bad news for his opponents, given that Trump is already ahead in Indiana, a must-win state for Cruz.
| STATE | TRUMP OVERPERFORMANCE |
|---|---|
| Average Since New York | +9.0 |
| Connecticut | +7.0 |
| Delaware | +6.1 |
| Maryland | +10.1 |
| New York | +6.5 |
| Pennsylvania | +11.7 |
| Rhode Island | +12.3 |
| Average Before New York | +0.2 |
| Alabama | +4.1 |
| Arizona | +7.9 |
| Arkansas | -1.2 |
| Florida | +4.5 |
| Georgia | +1.7 |
| Idaho | -1.9 |
| Illinois | +3.8 |
| Iowa | -5.8 |
| Kansas | -7.3 |
| Kentucky | +0.9 |
| Louisiana | -1.3 |
| Massachusetts | +2.8 |
| Michigan | -1.6 |
| Mississippi | +6.2 |
| Missouri | +4.8 |
| Nevada | +3.9 |
| New Hampshire | +2.9 |
| North Carolina | -1.0 |
| Ohio | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | -4.7 |
| South Carolina | -1.3 |
| Tennessee | -5.1 |
| Texas | -0.9 |
| Utah | -2.0 |
| Vermont | -0.7 |
| Virginia | -4.0 |
| Wisconsin | +1.0 |
Another problem for #NeverTrump: how do 54 unbound Pennsylvania delegates possibly vote against Trump when he’s won 57 percent of the statewide vote?
It’s not so much that they think it should be over. They think it is over.
To expand a bit, I think we can assume that Trump’s support comes first and foremost from voters’ preference for him over the alternatives. And Kasich and Cruz have long been essentially niche candidates. They’re just the last ones left. When you add that to their seeming inability to win, you’ve got at least a bit of an explanation for Trump’s rising support.