What Went Down In The April 26 Primary Elections

It’s not so much that they think it should be over. They think it is over. To expand a bit, I think we can assume that Trump’s support comes first and foremost from voters’ preference for him over the alternatives. And Kasich and Cruz have long been essentially niche candidates. They’re just the last ones left. When you add that to their seeming inability to win, you’ve got at least a bit of an explanation for Trump’s rising support.

To expand on Dave’s post about there being evidence of consolidation around Trump, is it possible that part of Trump’s apparent improvement is because GOP voters are just tired of this race? That they think it should be over?

Of the five states reporting results tonight, Trump’s smallest margin so far is 31 percentage points (in Maryland, where he leads Kasich 54 percent to 23 percent). Granted, these are low-turnout GOP primaries in very Democratic states that are demographically favorable to Trump. But by exceeding expectations in places like Maryland’s 8th District, Trump raises the question of whether we’re beginning to see a “rally around the frontrunner” effect on the GOP side that we simply aren’t seeing in the Democratic race.