Updated |
What Went Down In The April 26 Primary Elections
Is Tonight Evidence GOP Voters Are Consolidating Around Trump?
Of the five states reporting results tonight, Trump’s smallest margin so far is 31 percentage points (in Maryland, where he leads Kasich 54 percent to 23 percent). Granted, these are low-turnout GOP primaries in very Democratic states that are demographically favorable to Trump. But by exceeding expectations in places like Maryland’s 8th District, Trump raises the question of whether we’re beginning to see a “rally around the frontrunner” effect on the GOP side that we simply aren’t seeing in the Democratic race.
With 62,000 votes counted in the Baltimore Democratic mayoral primary, former Mayor Sheila Dixon is gaining on State Senate Majority Leader Catherine Pugh, thanks to a slight edge in votes cast today. But Pugh’s lead of nearly 4,000 votes in early voting might be enough to hold off Dixon’s charge. Meanwhile, DeRay Mckesson, the Black Lives Matter activist, is showing signs of strength in votes today — he got 1.6 percent of early votes but has 3 percent of votes cast today.
Trump May Be Helped By Low Turnout In Northeast
Although Republican turnout in the Northeast is higher than it’s been in most previous Republican primaries, it’s still quite low in an absolute sense — or compared to what it’s been in other parts of the country. In New York last week, for instance, only 6.4 percent of the voting-eligible population cast a ballot in the Republican primary, the lowest in any primary state to date, according to Michael McDonald’s website. And in Delaware tonight, which has counted almost all of its vote, GOP turnout is just 9.8 percent of the voting-eligible population. Trump seems to do well in areas where there are relatively few Republicans. It may also be that Kasich and Cruz supporters, who see their candidates way behind in the polls, aren’t motivated to turn out. Here’s the data for all primaries (not caucuses) so far:
| STATE | TURNOUT AS SHARE OF VOTING-ELIGIBLE POPULATION |
|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 27.8 |
| Wisconsin | 25.6 |
| Alabama | 23.9 |
| Ohio | 22.3 |
| Missouri | 20.7 |
| South Carolina | 20.3 |
| Idaho | 19.7 |
| Arkansas | 19.2 |
| Mississippi | 19.1 |
| Georgia | 18.8 |
| Michigan | 17.8 |
| Tennessee | 17.6 |
| Virginia | 17.0 |
| Oklahoma | 16.5 |
| Texas | 16.4 |
| Florida | 16.3 |
| North Carolina | 15.8 |
| Illinois | 15.3 |
| Massachusetts | 12.8 |
| Vermont | 12.5 |
| Arizona | 11.4 |
| Delaware | 9.8 |
| Louisiana | 8.9 |
| New York | 6.4 |