What Went Down In The April 26 Primary Elections

Although Republican turnout in the Northeast is higher than it’s been in most previous Republican primaries, it’s still quite low in an absolute sense — or compared to what it’s been in other parts of the country. In New York last week, for instance, only 6.4 percent of the voting-eligible population cast a ballot in the Republican primary, the lowest in any primary state to date, according to Michael McDonald’s website. And in Delaware tonight, which has counted almost all of its vote, GOP turnout is just 9.8 percent of the voting-eligible population. Trump seems to do well in areas where there are relatively few Republicans. It may also be that Kasich and Cruz supporters, who see their candidates way behind in the polls, aren’t motivated to turn out. Here’s the data for all primaries (not caucuses) so far:

Low Republican turnout in Northeast, except New Hampshire

STATE	TURNOUT AS SHARE OF VOTING-ELIGIBLE POPULATION
New Hampshire	27.8
Wisconsin	25.6
Alabama	23.9
Ohio	22.3
Missouri	20.7
South Carolina	20.3
Idaho	19.7
Arkansas	19.2
Mississippi	19.1
Georgia	18.8
Michigan	17.8
Tennessee	17.6
Virginia	17.0
Oklahoma	16.5
Texas	16.4
Florida	16.3
North Carolina	15.8
Illinois	15.3
Massachusetts	12.8
Vermont	12.5
Arizona	11.4
Delaware	9.8
Louisiana	8.9
New York	6.4

While Trump will win all 17 of Pennsylvania’s statewide delegates, the state will also send an additional 54 unbound delegates to the national convention. These delegates — three from each congressional district — were listed on today’s ballots without any indication of which candidate they might support. Many, however, have said publicly how they intend to vote at the convention (though they are free to change their minds). Below are the top three delegates right now in the districts that have reported results so far, along with how they’ve said they will vote. This list may change as more results come in. Many of the delegates have said they will back the winner of their district which, in many (if not all) cases, will be Trump.

Pennsylvania’s Delegates

DISTRICT	DELEGATE	PERCENTAGE	STATED PREFERENCE
1	Vogler, Christopher M	37.42%	Uncommitted
1	Hackett, David	31.75	District Winner
1	Kaufer, Seth W	30.83	Uncommitted
2	Havey, Elizabeth	29.30	District Winner
2	Tucker, Calvin R	29.16	Uncommitted
2	Cohen, Aaron J	25.82	Uncommitted
3	English, Philip S	17.66	Uncommitted
3	Ryan, Carol Lynne	11.27	Trump
3	Yates, Robert J.	11.14	District Winner
4	Sacco, Joseph A	13.38	Trump
4	Jansen, Matthew R	11.40	Trump
4	Scaringi, Marc Anthony	10.90	Trump
5	Klein, James Feuer	16.72	Trump
5	Mcclure, C Arnold	13.72	Trump
5	Khare, Ash	12.84	District Winner
6	Costello, Ryan A	25.32	District Winner
6	Lightcap, Vicki	14.27	District Winner
6	Buckwalter, Wayne	14.08	Trump
7	Puppio, Michael V	25.86	District Winner
7	Willert, Robert J.	24.10	Unknown
7	Miller, Joan M	23.42	District Winner
8	Worthington, Samuel James Jr	18.74	District Winner
8	Casper, Barry Robert	17.07	District Winner
8	Quinn, Marguerite C	14.50	Unknown
9	Shuster, William F	19.34	District Winner
9	Ward, Judith F	16.31	District Winner
9	Taylor, Debra D	13.45	Trump
10	Sides, Carol D	13.99	Unknown
10	Scavello, Mario Michael	10.04	District Winner
10	Pickett, Tina	9.44	District Winner
11	Morelli, Richard	16.28	Trump
11	Mcelwee, David J	12.68	Trump
11	Shecktor, Andrew	9.25	Trump
12	Steigerwalt, George F	10.80	Cruz
12	Vasilko, James J	9.69	Trump
12	Morrill, Monica	9.25	Trump
13	Ellis, Thomas Jay	17.29	District Winner
13	Cox, Gilbert W Jr	15.86	Unknown
13	Casper, Lauren Elizabeth	14.51	District Winner
14	Meloy, Mary A	35.65	Uncommitted
14	Devanney, Michael	34.78	Uncommitted
14	Linton, Cameron S	29.57	Kasich
16	Brubaker, Douglas W	22.86	Cruz
16	Denlinger, Gordon Ray	22.74	Uncommitted
16	Dumeyer, David M	17.43	District Winner
17	Villano, Teresa Lynette	18.50	Trump
17	Bonkoski, Carolyn L	17.79	Trump
17	Snover, Gloria Lee	15.10	District Winner
18	Means, Sue Ann	13.39	Cruz
18	Deplato, Justin Phd	13.13	Trump
18	Petrarca, John Thomas	12.94	District Winner

This year’s election race is the first test of the Obama legacy – not just of its strength, but about what it actually means. Obama has toggled back and forth between attempting to fulfill his promises of change, and working within the terms of debate that he inherited from predecessors — talking about business, work, private industry, cleaning up government through things like lobbying reform. But the conversation about equality among the historically marginalized groups that make up the Democratic coalition has shifted considerably during his two terms. It’s not clear how much of this Obama can really take credit for – he signed on to support marriage equality after public opinion had shifted, for instance. But he did put political weight behind that issue eventually, and behind repealing “don’t ask, don’t tell.” Issues for Americans who don’t fit into binary gender categories, the high rate of imprisonment, and racial justice – these have come up, too. And while Obama hasn’t been out in front of them, the party and the country have shifted and started new (and in many cases difficult) conversations. Clinton’s rhetoric seems to reflect that, with her emphasis on lifting each other up instead of tearing each other down, and on removing barriers. It offers the potential for her to integrate her role as the first woman candidate with a more substantive policy message. This has been a bit rocky for her – think back to the first Democratic debate. But the last two speeches have sounded some of these themes, and it seems to be working better. The implications for Obama’s legacy suggest, for one thing, that it might have meaning beyond the Affordable Care Act or his more fraught foreign policy approach. And it defies the longer historical story that Clinton tried to tell by referring to figures like FDR. The full-throated embrace of equality for marginalized groups has been an uneven and complicated journey for Democrats.