What Went Down In The April 26 Primary Elections

This year’s election race is the first test of the Obama legacy – not just of its strength, but about what it actually means. Obama has toggled back and forth between attempting to fulfill his promises of change, and working within the terms of debate that he inherited from predecessors — talking about business, work, private industry, cleaning up government through things like lobbying reform. But the conversation about equality among the historically marginalized groups that make up the Democratic coalition has shifted considerably during his two terms. It’s not clear how much of this Obama can really take credit for – he signed on to support marriage equality after public opinion had shifted, for instance. But he did put political weight behind that issue eventually, and behind repealing “don’t ask, don’t tell.” Issues for Americans who don’t fit into binary gender categories, the high rate of imprisonment, and racial justice – these have come up, too. And while Obama hasn’t been out in front of them, the party and the country have shifted and started new (and in many cases difficult) conversations. Clinton’s rhetoric seems to reflect that, with her emphasis on lifting each other up instead of tearing each other down, and on removing barriers. It offers the potential for her to integrate her role as the first woman candidate with a more substantive policy message. This has been a bit rocky for her – think back to the first Democratic debate. But the last two speeches have sounded some of these themes, and it seems to be working better. The implications for Obama’s legacy suggest, for one thing, that it might have meaning beyond the Affordable Care Act or his more fraught foreign policy approach. And it defies the longer historical story that Clinton tried to tell by referring to figures like FDR. The full-throated embrace of equality for marginalized groups has been an uneven and complicated journey for Democrats.

If I’m Clinton, I have to like the look of the Connecticut map. She’s down 1.5 percentage points with about half of precincts reporting, but there are a ton of votes left in Bridgeport, Hartford and much of southwestern Connecticut. Those are all Clinton strongholds where she is winning by 30 percentage points or more. Of course, we’ll have to see what happens.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen looks like he’s won the Democratic primary and will almost certainly be the next senator from Maryland. In fact, CNN just called it. Van Hollen is doing far better in his base (Montgomery County) than Rep. Donna Edwards is doing in hers (Prince George’s County), and he’s ahead by more than 40,000 votes statewide. This is a convincing victory for the “pragmatist” wing of the Democratic party and a bitter defeat to progressives and EMILY’s List.