What Went Down In The April 26 Primary Elections

In his speech tonight, Sanders cited his strength in hypothetical general-election polls. He’s right: He does beat all three Republican candidates in head-to-head matchups, according to the polls. But there are plenty of reasons to think those polls overstate Sanders’s general-election prospects: They’re based on an unrealistic scenario in which votes are cast today, before any Republican attacks on Sanders. Similarly, there’s reason to doubt Kasich’s lead in head-to-head polls against Clinton: He hasn’t gotten much negative attention from Democrats. Clinton leads comfortably against Cruz and Trump; she has led in the last 48 polls HuffPost Pollster has collected pitting her against Trump.

One reason Clinton looks as if she’ll do well in Pennsylvania is that she is holding her own not just in the Philadelphia area, but the Pittsburgh area as well. Clinton is winning in early returns in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) as well as doing well in its suburbs.