What Went Down In The April 26 Primary Elections

In his speech tonight, Sanders cited his strength in hypothetical general-election polls. He’s right: He does beat all three Republican candidates in head-to-head matchups, according to the polls. But there are plenty of reasons to think those polls overstate Sanders’s general-election prospects: They’re based on an unrealistic scenario in which votes are cast today, before any Republican attacks on Sanders. Similarly, there’s reason to doubt Kasich’s lead in head-to-head polls against Clinton: He hasn’t gotten much negative attention from Democrats. Clinton leads comfortably against Cruz and Trump; she has led in the last 48 polls HuffPost Pollster has collected pitting her against Trump.

One reason Clinton looks as if she’ll do well in Pennsylvania is that she is holding her own not just in the Philadelphia area, but the Pittsburgh area as well. Clinton is winning in early returns in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) as well as doing well in its suburbs.

So far, Trump looks like he’s on track to sweep all 38 delegates in Maryland — he’s comfortably ahead in all eight congressional districts. Projecting it out, the closest appears to be the suburban 8th District, where he currently leads Kasich 44 percent to 30 percent. Kasich is ahead of Trump in the Montgomery County portion of the 8th District by eight votes, which just isn’t good enough to offset Trump’s margins in the more rural reaches of the district.