That one’s hard to tell. Right now, Dunleavy is at 42 percent of the vote, which is pretty good considering two other Republicans are combining for 11 percent (assuming all those votes eventually roll up to Dunleavy, of course, that’s 53 percent). But the Republican vote share figures to decrease as more mail ballots are counted. So it could also be important whether Les Gara or Bill Walker finishes third. If Walker does, some of his support will probably got to Dunleavy, clinching his reelection. But if Gara does, you could maybe see Walker pulling off the upset?
