In the special election for Alaska’s U.S. House seat, Democrat Mary Peltola leads with 38 percent among first-choice votes, former GOP Gov. Sarah Palin has 32 percent and fellow Republican Nick Begich has 29 percent. This is with about two-thirds of the expected vote reporting.
Based on where the fewest expected votes are in — mostly in the most rural parts of Alaska, I suspect Peltola might actually gain more ground among first-choice votes. Who finishes second between Palin and Begich is key, though, because pre-election polling suggested that if the ranked-choice voting comes down to Peltola and Palin, the Democrat might actually have a shot at winning. If it’s Begich and Peltola, Begich would likely win most of Palin’s votes and win.