FiveThirtyEight
Alex Samuels

Murkowski has the distinction of being the only Senate Republican who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial. And in Alaska, she’s up against a challenger on her right flank who has been endorsed by Trump.

It might be that, had she voted not to confirm now-Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, maybe she would’ve been able to shore up her standing with conservatives. But, on the other hand, her yes vote maybe helped bolster her coalition of centrist Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans to make up for those on the right who have abandoned her because of her frequent defections from the party line.


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