I think this was actually a pretty strong showing for Murkowski, especially if she picks up some steam as the absentee votes are counted. The pretty limited public polling of the race tended to have Murkowski in the 20s or 30s, rather than the mid-40s. Her starting position is incredibly important, since it’s a race to 50 percent in the ranked-choice process. At the moment, it looks like Murkowski + Chesbro, the main Democrat in the race, is basically at 50 percent already. While it’s a totally new ballgame in the fall, it’s a sign that she’s already consolidated a fair amount of support among independents and Democrats.
