FiveThirtyEight
Meredith Conroy

I think Cheney’s next chapter could look like Evan McMullin. As a reminder, McMullin is a former CIA officer and Republican who ran for president as a never-Trump Republican in 2016 as an independent. McMullin didn’t win a single electoral vote (as is typically for a third-party candidate), but he did take a chunk out of Trump’s vote in Utah, where McMullin is from. If Cheney’s genuine goal is to prevent a second Trump term, I think she will run as a 2024 spoiler, if he does indeed run and win the nomination. (For what it’s worth, McMullin is still around, trying to oust Utah GOP Senator Mike Lee this November.)


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