What Went Down In The June 21 Elections In Alabama, Virginia And Georgia

ABC News can now report that Wes Allen is projected to win the Republican runoff for Alabama secretary of state. He currently leads Jim Zeigler 66 percent to 34 percent. Allen becomes the fourth Republican secretary of state nominee who has at least flirted with the Big Lie, joining Kristina Karamo of Michigan, Audrey Trujillo of New Mexico and Jim Marchant of Nevada.

For elections that have been called so far this primary season (including the races that have been called so far tonight) 105 candidates who deny the 2020 election was legitimate and 42 candidates who have questioned the results have won the Republican nomination, out of 284 nominees total. This means that 52 percent of Republican nominees so far endorse the Big Lie in some way.

The Associated Press has called Alabama’s 5th District for Strong, with 59 percent of the expected votes counted. He was up 63 percent, compared with Casey Wardynski’s 37 percent. Strong will face the Democratic nominee, Kathy Warner-Stanton, in the fall.

With Katie Britt projected to win the GOP nomination for Alabama’s open Senate seat, all of Trump’s endorsees on ballots today know their fates: Of his four picks with contested races, two have prevailed. In addition to Britt, incumbent Rep. Ben Cline has secured his spot in seeking reelection for Virginia’s 6th District this November. Jake Evans and Vernon Jones — who were vying for U.S. House seats representing Georgia’s 6th and 10th districts, respectively — are projected to lose.

Tonight’s results bring the winning tally of Trump-endorsed Senate, House and governor candidates to 110 out of 117 races. Among nonincumbents only, it’s 18 out of 24.

I am curious about that too, Nathaniel. With Britt projected to win, Republican women did well tonight. Women won nominations in Virginia’s 2nd District (Kiggans), Virginia’s 7th District (Vega) and the Senate race in Alabama (Britt). In the past, that might mean more ideological moderation. Previous research has shown that among voters, Republican women are more moderate than Republican men, and among potential candidates in the pipeline, women were also more moderate than men. I’m not sure that relationship between gender and ideology holds in this political environment, but it’s something we will explore more this election season on the site.

Right, Nathaniel: In 2019 (that is, pre-redistricting), Black voters were the largest ethnic group in the district, at about 53 percent.

Allen also introduced a bill that would criminalize private funds for election administration. This was in direct response to grants funded by Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg that many election offices took advantage of in the 2020 election. While this could definitely be part of the normal policy debate around elections, it’s worth noting that many Big Lie conspiracy theorists have claimed that Zuckerberg’s grants were used to “buy” votes and rig the election, so Allen’s legislative focus is notable, especially because he said that allowing the use of private funds “damages the integrity of the election process and calls into question our elections themselves.”

Given Alabama’s red hue, Britt was essentially just elected the next U.S. senator from Alabama. And I am very interested to see what kind of senator she will be. She used to work for retiring Sen. Richard Shelby, who is an old-school appropriator/statesman type, and she also used to work for a big-business group, so I could see her being a Chamber of Commerce-type Republican. On the other hand, she really embraced Trump during this campaign (and he endorsed her, of course), and she probably never has to worry about a general election ever again, so I wonder if she will embrace the populist wing of the party instead.

Let’s check in on the race for GOP nominee for secretary of state in Alabama, where both candidates have at least questioned the 2020 results. With 13 percent of expected votes are reporting, state Rep. Wes Allen is leading with 67 percent over state Auditor Jim Zeigler. Allen has said he has concerns about the election administration system and supported the 2020 Texas lawsuit challenging the election results, posting on Twitter that the state attorney general should “stand firm” in his support of that case (which was later thrown out).

I think Republicans are going to have a hard time winning Georgia’s 2nd District if Hunt doesn’t win tonight. He is a perfect candidate on paper for that district: a Black West Point graduate in a district whose voting-age population is 48 percent Black. If West (who is white) is the nominee, though, Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop will have a clearer advantage despite the district’s D+4 partisan lean. It is very inelastic, and any Republican will need to make inroads with Black voters there in order to succeed.

Interesting story about Dale Strong in Alabama’s 5th District: Several local GOP leaders actually tried to get him booted from the ballot because, as Madison County commissioner, he oversaw the removal of a Confederate monument from the Madison County Courthouse in 2020 following the summer of Black Lives Matter protests.

And that’s that. ABC News reports that former Business Council of Alabama President Katie Britt is projected to win the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate in Alabama. She’s leading Rep. Mo Brooks 63 percent to 37 percent, with 12 percent of the expected vote reporting.

In Georgia’s 2nd District, we’re now up to 66 percent of the expected vote in, and it looks like Hunt is in deep danger of losing the Republican runoff to West. According to ABC News, West leads 52 percent to 48 percent.

A little more than a quarter of the expected vote is in in Alabama’s 5th Congressional District, and Strong’s lead is getting, I’m so sorry, stronger, with 63 percent of the vote to Wardynski’s 37 percent.

We’ve hit the 10 percent expected-vote mark in Alabama’s GOP runoff for Senate and, uh, it’s pretty clear where things are headed. Britt leads Brooks 65 percent to 35 percent, and she has an edge in every county that has reported.

Yes, Kaleigh, especially since so many of these candidates are running for positions that will give them authority over election administration, as you’ve written. As the results com in, it’s hard not to think of today’s testimony by former Fulton County, Georgia election official Shaye Moss and her mother, Ruby Freeman, at today’s Jan. 6 hearing. They had been targeted by Trump, and Freeman left her home for two months out of fears for her safety. Trump had mentioned them by name numerous times in his infamous phone call to Raffensperger to “find” more votes. It’s a reminder that the Big Lie has had real-world consequences for real people.

I worry a bit that with the sheer volume of election-denying candidates running in Republican races, we might become numb to how extreme these views are. For elections that had been called through June 13, 52 percent of Republican nominees have either said the election was stolen or questioned the results. That’s … a lot of candidates who question a fundamental part of our democracy running for elected office this fall.

We’re up to 12 percent reporting in the Republican runoff for Alabama secretary of state, and Wes Allen is leading Jim Zeigler 66 percent to 34 percent. This election will essentially determine who oversees the 2024 presidential election in the state, but no matter who wins, it will be someone who has expressed sympathy with Trump’s false claims of widespread voter fraud.

And it’s looking like things are wrapping up in Virginia’s 7th District. ABC News reports that Vega is projected to win the Republican nomination for the seat. With 89 percent of the vote reporting, she’s leading with 29 percent of the vote. She’ll go up against incumbent Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in November.

Yes, Kaleigh, there doesn’t seem to be much daylight between these two candidates.

Sorry. That is decidedly less fun than puns.

While they may not have pun-able names in common, both Wardynski and Strong share one thing: their promotion of the Big Lie! Wardynski has claimed that “leftists stole the election,” and Strong posted his support for Trump last summer on Facebook with the hashtag “TRUMPWON”:

The tide of votes is rolling in very slowly in Alabama, but with about 4 percent of the expected vote reporting in the GOP Senate primary runoff, Britt has a clear edge over Brooks: She leads 63 percent to 37 percent, and she even leads in Brooks’s home base of Madison County (home to Huntsville).

Jeff Singer of Daily Kos Elections begs to differ:

Nathaniel, I’m sorry to say that his opponent, Wardynski, does not have a name to pun with.

Lol, I see the dad jokes are back this week.

Monica, would you characterize his lead as … Strong?

With 12 percent of the expected vote in, Strong is in the lead in the Republican primary runoff for Alabama’s 5th Congressional District, Mo Brooks’s soon-to-be former district. Strong entered the runoff with a lead.

Yep, the Prince William County hammer is coming down for Vega in Virginia’s 7th District, with about 80 percent of the overall expected vote in. About 20 percent of the county is reporting now, and Vega has now taken the lead with 26 percent, thanks to winning half the vote in PWC. Little reason to think that trend won’t continue, which should give her a straightforward path to victory.

In Georgia’s 2nd District, we saw some major outside money come in for Hunt in the closing weeks of the runoff, perhaps a sign that his position was not as strong as initially thought, and a precursor to his struggles tonight. The Ken Griffin-funded American Patriots PAC poured in $300,000, and a Super PAC called American Values First, which is funded primarily by a GOP 501(c)4 “dark money” group called Prosperity Alliance, chipped in another $280,000.

The Associated Press has called the Democratic primary for Washington, D.C., mayor for incumbent Muriel Bowser. She faced challenges from two sitting councilmen, Robert White and Trayon White, but she’s looking strong in the early returns and will be a lock for a third term in the fall.

As votes begin to very slowly trickle in from Alabama, I’m watching the Republican runoff for Alabama’s 5th Congressional District, where Dale Strong, the Madison County Commission Chairman, faces Casey Wardynski, a former Huntsville schools superintendent. Strong is the favorite: He won 45 percent of the vote in the May 24 primary, compared with 23 percent for Wardynski, and a poll since then has him at similar numbers. Whoever wins will face Democratic nominee Kathy Warner-Stanton in the fall. Alabama is one of the reddest states in the nation, and the Republican nominee will head into the general election as the likely favorite.

Sarah, we rightly track Trump’s endorsements because he definitely still has influence in the party. I don’t think anyone should take the success or failure of his endorsees as a litmus test for his standing within the GOP, but rather as one piece of a larger puzzle. Trump clearly can give a candidate a leg up under the right circumstances, such as a crowded race where there isn’t a strong local favorite. Take J.D. Vance’s win in the GOP Senate primary — no one could break away, and so the effect of Trump’s endorsement really showed in the closing days of the campaign. But trying to get someone like Jones in Georgia’s 10th District — someone with zero ties to the seat — over the hump wasn’t going to be easy based solely on Trump’s endorsement. No one serious should give Trump credit for Britt’s likely win in Alabama considering the position she was in after the initial vote last month, either.

We’ve got 76 percent of the expected vote in from Virginia’s 7th District GOP primary, and Anderson narrowly leads with 25 percent to Vega’s 24 percent, with Reeves in a close third, at 22 percent. But Vega is actually in a pretty good spot. Per ABC News, all but one county has reported almost all of its vote tonight. The lone outlier is Prince William County, Vega’s home base, which has reported only about a tenth of its expected vote. Vega has 39 percent of the vote there, so assuming she continues to win a clear plurality, it’s hard to see her not winning tonight.

As Jacob and Zoha pointed out, just because Trump’s preferred candidates lost in Georgia’s 6th and 10th districts doesn’t mean it was a victory for non-Trump Republicans. Anytime a Trump endorsee loses, there is a tendency, I think, to assume that it’s because another wing of the party has prevailed — when the reality is sometimes voters just don’t like who Trump picked! It’s almost like … his grip on the party isn’t invincible. And all those polls that show that Republicans like Trump’s policies but maybe don’t want another Trump presidency might be onto something. 🙃

On that note, Meredith: In a year when voters are worried about crime, Vega’s background in law enforcement could have given her a boost. She’s also the daughter of Salvadoran immigrants and has taken tough stands on immigration enforcement, which has made her a bit of a lightning rod locally — and that could be helping her as well.

If Vega does win the GOP nomination in Virginia’s 7th District, that would make tonight a relatively good night for Republican women, who, as I mentioned earlier, have struggled in primaries thus far. Vega is a law enforcement officer and would challenge incumbent Democratic Abigail Spanberger who is a former operations officer in the CIA.

Yeah, Amelia, I’m interested to see the next batch of results from Prince William County in Virginia’s 7th District GOP primary. So far only about 10 percent of the expected vote is in from that county, which makes about a third of the district’s voters. If Vega can stay close to 40 percent there, that should give her an edge over her opponents — she’s at 39 percent right now in her home county, where she’s a member of the board of supervisors.

Heh. I guess not, Kaleigh. But the whiplash is still notable, even after seven years!

Jacob, you are surprised by Trump contradicting himself?

We now have 64 percent of the expected vote in Virginia’s 7th District, and Anderson has a very slight lead, with 25 percent. Vega is just behind, with 24 percent, but they’re very close together — only about 250 votes apart. Reeves is still in third.

As noted, ABC News projects that Rich McCormick will win the GOP nomination for Georgia’s 6th District and, in turn, defeat Trump-endorsed Jake Evans. It’s worth noting, though, that McCormick is still a staunch conservative who echoes many of Trump’s beliefs and stances. And as Nathaniel said, it’s likely that this district, which is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, will flip this November (thanks to largely redistricting).

We now have 48 percent of the expected vote in Georgia’s 2nd District, and things aren’t looking too good for Hunt. West’s lead hasn’t diminished so far, and he currently is leading 54 percent to 46 percent. Going into tonight, I’ll admit that I thought Hunt had this race in the bag, but West has definitely made things more competitive. And if Hunt and Vernon Jones in Georgia’s 10th District both lose, that’ll be two strikes against Republicans having a slightly more diverse House caucus …

Right, Monica and Kaleigh. And we see that level of intensity from the MAGA crowd — especially on social media, where they suss out who is fully on board.

Exactly, Monica, and many candidates that haven’t spent their campaigns railing about a stolen election also haven’t been willing to say the election was legitimate, instead dodging the question or raising opaque questions about “election integrity.” Yes, everyone agrees our elections should be secure. But do you think the last one was or not?

Meredith, that’s one of the interesting things about this primary season, I think. In some races, the differences in the Republican primary fields are not real substantive differences, but different levels of intensity in supporting Trump and the Big Lie.

But, as Kaleigh has written, while Britt may have Trump’s endorsement, it’s not as if Brooks is “soft on the Big Lie.”

Monica, that’s funny because Britt seems very much the candidate of the future — in the sense that she’s only 40 years old — while Books has been in elected office since the early 1980s and is 68 years old.

What makes Trump’s endorsement of Britt unusual to me (other than the circumstances surrounding his unendorsement of Brooks) is just how dismissive he was of her earlier in the race. He called her an “assistant” (she was a Senate chief of staff and ran Alabama’s branch of the Chamber of Commerce) and said she was “not in any way qualified and is certainly not what our Country needs or not what Alabama wants.”