FiveThirtyEight
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Spanberger, as Nathaniel and others noted, is a potentially vulnerable incumbent this cycle. She won her seat back in 2018, but the boundaries of her district shifted substantially during redistricting, toward Virginia’s northern suburbs and away from the state capital, Richmond, where her base of support was located. The district did also get more competitive — it went from a partisan lean of R+5 to D+2 — but she’s having to reintroduce herself to a bunch of new voters in a Republican-leaning environment.


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