FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson Nathaniel Rakich Alex Samuels

Tonight was a mixed bag for former President Donald Trump’s endorsement record. Two of his preferred candidates lost their House races in Georgia, while his other two picks this evening prevailed: Rep. Ben Cline in Virginia’s 6th District easily cruised to renomination, and former Business Council of Alabama President Katie Britt won in the Alabama Senate primary runoff against Rep. Mo Brooks.

Overall, though, 94 percent of Trump’s endorsed candidates for Senate, House and governor have won their races — or put another way, 110 Trump-backed candidates out of 117 have won their primaries. But, as Zoha noted on the live blog, that win rate does drop among nonincumbents candidates. With this group, Trump is batting a 75 percent average since just 18 out of 24 nonincumbent candidates have prevailed.

Most notably, though, regardless of whether Trump’s candidates won or lost, Republicans who backed his fraudulent claims about the 2020 election have prevailed. According to our research, 52 percent of Republican nominees who have questioned the 2020 election or who say it was fraudulent have won their primaries so far, as Kaleigh noted earlier on the live blog.

At this point, there is just one key race where ABC News cannot report a winner at this time — Georgia’s 2nd District. In this district, it looks like Chris West is on track to defeat Jeremy Hunt, some national Republicans’ favored recruit. With about 70 percent of the expected vote in, West currently leads Hunt 52 percent to 48 percent. If West wins tonight, he will go on to face Democratic incumbent Rep. Sanford Bishop in November. And the general election will likely be one of Georgia’s most closely watched congressional races since redistricting made the district more competitive. As Nathaniel mentioned earlier on the live blog, though, West, who is white, might have a harder time making inroads with the district’s significantly Black voter base.

Nathaniel Rakich

ABC News can now report that Wes Allen is projected to win the Republican runoff for Alabama secretary of state. He currently leads Jim Zeigler 66 percent to 34 percent. Allen becomes the fourth Republican secretary of state nominee who has at least flirted with the Big Lie, joining Kristina Karamo of Michigan, Audrey Trujillo of New Mexico and Jim Marchant of Nevada.

Kaleigh Rogers

For elections that have been called so far this primary season (including the races that have been called so far tonight) 105 candidates who deny the 2020 election was legitimate and 42 candidates who have questioned the results have won the Republican nomination, out of 284 nominees total. This means that 52 percent of Republican nominees so far endorse the Big Lie in some way.

How Big Lie supporters are doing tonight

Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Virginia and runoffs in Alabama and Georgia, as of 9:51 p.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Big Lie Position % REPORTING VOTE SHARE STATUS
Katie Britt AL Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 36% 63.9% ✓ Won
Mo Brooks AL Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 36 36.1 ✗ Lost
Wes Allen AL SoS ❓Raised doubts 33 65.3 ✓ Won
Jim Zeigler AL SoS ❓Raised doubts 33 34.7 ✗ Lost
Dale Strong AL-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 61 63.4 ✓ Won
Casey Wardynski AL-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 61 36.6 ✗ Lost
Rich McCormick GA-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 41 68.1 ✓ Won
Jake Evans GA-06 ❓Raised doubts 41 31.9 ✗ Lost
Mark Gonsalves GA-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 21 67.6 Leading
Mike Collins GA-10 🚫 Denied legitimacy 57 74.6 ✓ Won
Vernon J. Jones GA-10 🚫 Denied legitimacy 57 25.4 ✗ Lost
Jen A. Kiggans VA-02 ❓Raised doubts 99 55.6 ✓ Won
Jarome Bell VA-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 27.1 ✗ Lost
L. Tommy Altman III VA-02 ❓Raised doubts 99 14.3 ✗ Lost
Andrew G. “Andy” Baan VA-02 ❓Raised doubts 99 2.9 ✗ Lost
Ted W. Engquist VA-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 39.5 ✗ Lost
Ben L. Cline* VA-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 60 82.2 ✓ Won
Bryce E. Reeves VA-07 ❓Raised doubts 89 20.1 ✗ Lost
David L. Ross VA-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 89 6.1 ✗ Lost
Gina R. Ciarcia VA-07 ❓Raised doubts 89 4.2 ✗ Lost

*Incumbent.

Candidates marked as having “denied legitimacy” of the 2020 election either explicitly said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was illegitimate or, if an elected official, took legal measures to try and overturn the election. Candidates marked as “raised doubts” have questioned the fairness of the 2020 election or made references to “election integrity” but have not explicitly said the election or Trump’s loss was illegitimate.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News


Exit mobile version