FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

Sarah, we rightly track Trump’s endorsements because he definitely still has influence in the party. I don’t think anyone should take the success or failure of his endorsees as a litmus test for his standing within the GOP, but rather as one piece of a larger puzzle. Trump clearly can give a candidate a leg up under the right circumstances, such as a crowded race where there isn’t a strong local favorite. Take J.D. Vance’s win in the GOP Senate primary — no one could break away, and so the effect of Trump’s endorsement really showed in the closing days of the campaign. But trying to get someone like Jones in Georgia’s 10th District — someone with zero ties to the seat — over the hump wasn’t going to be easy based solely on Trump’s endorsement. No one serious should give Trump credit for Britt’s likely win in Alabama considering the position she was in after the initial vote last month, either.

Geoffrey Skelley

We’ve got 76 percent of the expected vote in from Virginia’s 7th District GOP primary, and Anderson narrowly leads with 25 percent to Vega’s 24 percent, with Reeves in a close third, at 22 percent. But Vega is actually in a pretty good spot. Per ABC News, all but one county has reported almost all of its vote tonight. The lone outlier is Prince William County, Vega’s home base, which has reported only about a tenth of its expected vote. Vega has 39 percent of the vote there, so assuming she continues to win a clear plurality, it’s hard to see her not winning tonight.

Latest count in Virginia’s 7th District GOP primary

Results of the Republican primary for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, as of 8:39 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Derrick M. Anderson 7,951 25.0%
Yesli I. Vega 7,692 24.2
Bryce E. Reeves 6,975 22.0
Crystal L. Vanuch 5,855 18.4
David L. Ross 2,128 6.7
Gina R. Ciarcia 1,165 3.7

76% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC News

Sarah Frostenson

As Jacob and Zoha pointed out, just because Trump’s preferred candidates lost in Georgia’s 6th and 10th districts doesn’t mean it was a victory for non-Trump Republicans. Anytime a Trump endorsee loses, there is a tendency, I think, to assume that it’s because another wing of the party has prevailed — when the reality is sometimes voters just don’t like who Trump picked! It’s almost like … his grip on the party isn’t invincible. And all those polls that show that Republicans like Trump’s policies but maybe don’t want another Trump presidency might be onto something. 🙃


Exit mobile version