FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

The Associated Press has called the Democratic primary for Washington, D.C., mayor for incumbent Muriel Bowser. She faced challenges from two sitting councilmen, Robert White and Trayon White, but she’s looking strong in the early returns and will be a lock for a third term in the fall.

Monica Potts

As votes begin to very slowly trickle in from Alabama, I’m watching the Republican runoff for Alabama’s 5th Congressional District, where Dale Strong, the Madison County Commission Chairman, faces Casey Wardynski, a former Huntsville schools superintendent. Strong is the favorite: He won 45 percent of the vote in the May 24 primary, compared with 23 percent for Wardynski, and a poll since then has him at similar numbers. Whoever wins will face Democratic nominee Kathy Warner-Stanton in the fall. Alabama is one of the reddest states in the nation, and the Republican nominee will head into the general election as the likely favorite.

Geoffrey Skelley

Sarah, we rightly track Trump’s endorsements because he definitely still has influence in the party. I don’t think anyone should take the success or failure of his endorsees as a litmus test for his standing within the GOP, but rather as one piece of a larger puzzle. Trump clearly can give a candidate a leg up under the right circumstances, such as a crowded race where there isn’t a strong local favorite. Take J.D. Vance’s win in the GOP Senate primary — no one could break away, and so the effect of Trump’s endorsement really showed in the closing days of the campaign. But trying to get someone like Jones in Georgia’s 10th District — someone with zero ties to the seat — over the hump wasn’t going to be easy based solely on Trump’s endorsement. No one serious should give Trump credit for Britt’s likely win in Alabama considering the position she was in after the initial vote last month, either.


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