What Went Down In The June 21 Elections In Alabama, Virginia And Georgia

As votes begin to very slowly trickle in from Alabama, I’m watching the Republican runoff for Alabama’s 5th Congressional District, where Dale Strong, the Madison County Commission Chairman, faces Casey Wardynski, a former Huntsville schools superintendent. Strong is the favorite: He won 45 percent of the vote in the May 24 primary, compared with 23 percent for Wardynski, and a poll since then has him at similar numbers. Whoever wins will face Democratic nominee Kathy Warner-Stanton in the fall. Alabama is one of the reddest states in the nation, and the Republican nominee will head into the general election as the likely favorite.

Sarah, we rightly track Trump’s endorsements because he definitely still has influence in the party. I don’t think anyone should take the success or failure of his endorsees as a litmus test for his standing within the GOP, but rather as one piece of a larger puzzle. Trump clearly can give a candidate a leg up under the right circumstances, such as a crowded race where there isn’t a strong local favorite. Take J.D. Vance’s win in the GOP Senate primary — no one could break away, and so the effect of Trump’s endorsement really showed in the closing days of the campaign. But trying to get someone like Jones in Georgia’s 10th District — someone with zero ties to the seat — over the hump wasn’t going to be easy based solely on Trump’s endorsement. No one serious should give Trump credit for Britt’s likely win in Alabama considering the position she was in after the initial vote last month, either.

We’ve got 76 percent of the expected vote in from Virginia’s 7th District GOP primary, and Anderson narrowly leads with 25 percent to Vega’s 24 percent, with Reeves in a close third, at 22 percent. But Vega is actually in a pretty good spot. Per ABC News, all but one county has reported almost all of its vote tonight. The lone outlier is Prince William County, Vega’s home base, which has reported only about a tenth of its expected vote. Vega has 39 percent of the vote there, so assuming she continues to win a clear plurality, it’s hard to see her not winning tonight.